Middle East Snapshot

Three weeks ago, on 5th June, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain decided to completely sever ties with Qatar. And some experts have been calling this the biggest political crisis to hit the Middle East in years.

In the aim to end the Qatar's crisis with Saudi Arabia and Gulf neighbors, last week the four Arab countries, that imposed a regional embargo on Qatar, issued list of demands which included shutting down the Al Jazeera, the Qatar's state-backed media network.

In my opinion, everybody who wants to keep Middle East frozen, in a state of crude oil autocracy, would like to close Al Jazeera and its usual comprehensive and impartial coverage of events around the world.

"Europe will not be made all at once" (Robert Shuman)

On May 7th the result of the French Presidential elections showed that we will not see the "Frexit" in the next years. America's plan is aimed at breaking the EU into smaller pieces, and it didn't work in France. And since June 2016 most people in Scotland and Northern Ireland, who  voted to remain in the EU, have been valuating the bill which has to be paid for exiting the EU. 

According to the terms of the negotiations, which were framed by the EU in  a paper published on March 29th, Britain must pay price for leaving the EU. It  would amount to about US $ 60 billion, including negotiation costs, such as the hire of facilities for the talks, meals and other subsistence allowances.

It's easy to see why Scotland and Northern Ireland are trying  to become two independent states of the EU in their own right.

Anti-EU election in France

In the first round of the 2017 French Presidential election no candidate won a majority. As a result, a run-off between the top two candidate will be held on May 7th, 2017.

Marine Le Pen's Politics is focused on immigration, as she want to protect French workers. She is less open market than Emmanuel Macron, who is more open borders.

In other words, on May 7th,  2017 French people will vote to leave or remain in the EU. And if France will leave the EU, who will be the next? As it is known, the UK will leave the UE in two years and Czech Republic has just announced to leave the Euro system.  

Cloud of uncertainty over Scotland which leaves the EU

After the UK's Prime Minister had triggered Article 50 of EU Treaty on March 29th, 2017, some Scottish policy makers explained once again how is important to leave the UK through a new independence referendum. And since June 2016 most Irish people have been thinking what happens if Scotland remains in the EU by leaving the UK. Like Scotland, the majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Not surprisingly, Northern Ireland may become an independent state of the EU in its own right, considering that its territory is larger than some existing EU members states, such as Luxembourg and Malta, It may become an independent state of the EU in its own right.

Most economist had assumed that after the vote to leave the EU the British economy will slow sharply. Of course, the UK will pay tariffs on goods and services it will export into the EU. And British business leaders are already afraid the UK will not be an attractive place to do business. 

According to figures, half of British exports are to the EU. As consequence, it is easy to know the impact of Brexit on the UK. For instance, British car makers, who are the UK's biggest exporters, have warned that the UK's departure from the European Union poses the “biggest threat in a generation”.

With regard to Scotland, three out of four its international trading markets are in the EU (France, Germany, Netherland, and USA). With food and drink exports reaching over £ 5 Billions, Scotland products are in demand in the world over.  As a matter of fact, Scotland is the third largest producer of farmed Atlantic salmon in the world, and Scotch whisky account for almost 80% of Scotland's food and beverages export market.

In this perspective, Scottish Prime Minister  recently said she is "fairly certain"  there will be a second referendum on Scottish independence, considering the cloud of uncertainty  over Scotland's future.

Post-Brexit

It isn't easy to understand why some British Ministers are still so optimistic about Brexit. While the UK's Prime Minister triggers Article 50 later this month, the Irish republican party's leader says that "We must defend the democratic mandate of the people to remain in the EU". That's why Northern Ireland should hold a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland. In addition, as it is already known, a decision on calling a new Scottish independence referendum could be made within weeks: the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, recently said that plans to take the UK out of the EU's Single market have brought a second Scottish independence referendum "undoubtedly" closer.

Actually, it seems that the British Government is now on an unpleasantly difficult situation: on the one hand, Mrs. May says that British people would have truly left the EU when they would be in control of their own laws. On the other hand, she is still looking for the "Greatest possible access" to EU's Single market after leaving it.

According to an article published in "The Economist" on March 4th, 2017, The European Court of Justice will probably control any transitional arrangement which will be made between post-Brexit UK and EU. If the UK were to need trading relationships with the EU, it wouldn't be free from the shackles of the Luxembourg's Court of Justice. 

Since the 1960s European Court of Justice have been supervising any trade deal signed by the EU. And all non-EU countries that seek close access to the EU's Single Market, such as Switzerland, Iceland and Norway,  have been following the Luxembourg's rules. 

As a result, notwithstanding the country has voted to leave the EU, Britain will not reach the aim to take the UK out of the European Court of Justice. Moreover, Scotland and Northern Ireland will try to leave the UK, and refugees and immigrates will be probably allowed to remain in Britain. It isn't easy to understand why someone is optimistic about Brexit.

Scottish people are debating about the future of the UK

Last week I was in Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, where I didn't see any flag of the UK. There were only flags with St. Andrew's cross everywhere. I could read Scottish newspapers and magazines, which reported politicians' points of view about the economic consequences of Brexit and Scotland independence.
A very meaningful heading at the top of a newspaper's page reported a piece of a Scottish politician's speech: "We have been under the heel of foreign influence and power for 300 years".
As it is known, in 1707 the Act of Union brought Scotland even closer to Britain by creating a single parliament. In 1999 the Scottish Parliament reconvened for the first time in nearly 300 years, ushering in a new era for the Scottish people. Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, but against Brexit in 2016, and will probably be driven out of the EU against its will. As a result, Scottish people should hold another referendum in order lo leave the UK. 

In this perspective, the UK Prime Minister is proposing a free trade agreement for goods and services between Britain and EU Member States, which will give to British companies the maximum freedom  to trade with and operate in the European market.  With regard to Britain's imminent departure from the EU, Theresa May specifies that the agreement doesn't mean membership of single market, but she is seeking the greatest possible access to it through an ambitious free trade agreement.   

How could British companies get access to the single market while the UK is still ready to leave the EU? European decision makers will likely disagree with Mrs. May's free trade agreement, because it may be a dangerous starting point.
According to the domino theory, other Member States would follow the UK and would leave the EU. And, not surprisingly, things in the EU may get a little out of hand, considering that  many anti-europeanism leaders face important election in the course of this year.

A Federal Europe would be disadvantageous to American interests

In 1942 Nicholas J. Spykman, a Dutch-American geostrategist,  argued that a United Europe will be disadvantageous under any circumstances. He preferred a fragmentation of power among states within Europe as more advantageous to American interests.

Therefore, Spykman was opposed strongly to the development of a European Federation, even it to came about peacefully or democratically. Of course, he also opposed to both German and Russian domination of Europe. In his book, "America's strategy in world politics: the United States and the balance of power", which gives us a framework to understand Post Cold War world, he wrote "A Federal Europe would constitute an agglomeration that would completely alter our significance as an Atlantic power and greatly weaken our position in the Western Hemisphere".

Since 1970s it has been easy to see that the more united Europe become, the greater its tensions with the U.S.. And in the early 1990s America policymakers were so happy so see the fragmentation of both the Soviet empire and the former Yugoslavia. They also agreed with the split of Czechoslovakia, which occurred in 1993.

Nowadays Americans are still fearing a European Super-State with its single foreign policy, as it would be a competitor of the U.S.. In this perspective, the President elected Donald Trump said that Brexit will be a great thing for U.K., and he hopes other E.U. countries will do the same. Although  Spykman opposed to the development of a Federation of states within the old  continent more than 70 years ago, the U.S. is still trying to fragment Europe.

In the meanwhile,  encouraged by the U.S. presidential election and U.K.'s Brexit  referendum results, Europe's far right leaders get together in Germany this month. Many of those anti-europeanism leaders face important election in the course of this year.