Still room for negotiation

The Ukrainian President, Zelenskij, recently urged the EU to "prove that you are with us" in Ukraine war with Russia. As it is known, the German carmaker Volkswagen has two factories and around 4,000 employees in Russia. ENI, the Italian multinational oil and gas company, and the Russian company Gazprom  have 50% each in the Blue Stream gas pipeline to Turkey. The Norwegian company Equinor has minority stakes in three Russian oilfields. The French carmaker Renault makes 8% of its earnings in Russia (source: Citibank).

In this context, how can the Ukrainian President be so naive? Does he really think that the EU may help his country? I hope the diplomacy will be able to do a good job. There is still room for a good negotiation! It is not too late!

Growing list of countries to suspend the Anglo-Swedish vaccine

On Tuesday, 30th March, Germany became the latest in a growing list of countries to suspend use of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine to younger age group. Health Ministry had found 31 cases of a type of rare blood clot among nearly 2.7 million people who received the vaccine in Germany. 

Obviously, the European Medicines Agency said there was not enough evidence to establish a link between the problem and the vaccine.

Meanwhile, trees blooming and flowering announce the beginning of Spring and new life. 

EU digital certificate

In 2020 bosses of the top EU companies had weekly earned the same amount that an average worker in Europe earns in an entire year.  And according to the Economic Policy Institute, despite the spreading of Covid-19 epidemic, chief executives of the 350 largest US companies earned an average of $ 20 million in 2020. In other words, there are evidence that top bosses continue to earn high salaries while coronavirus pandemic is exposing low-income populations to job losses and health risks. 

The executive's price-driven salaries began in the early 1980s, when CEOs pay become connected with share prices (companies' share prices on stock markets). The problem is that sometimes an excellent company has nothing to do with the CEO. Not to mention of companies that operate in an oligopoly, as we can see nowadays in the emerging vaccine industry. 

While people at the top are maintaining their wealth and society is suffering higher levels of inequality, the EU unveils plan for Covid-19 digital pass to allow travel  within member states with the aim of helping entrepreneurs and workers who are involved in travel industry and tourism. 

The digital pass is expected to consist of QR code that can easily be scanned at airports, as it will be in digital or paper format. On the one hand, some EU states say the digital pass discriminates people who didn't receive the injection to prevent Covid-19 illness. On the other hand, EU Commission says the certificate is not discriminatory and would be suspended after pandemic ends. 

The following pictures show some popular tourist destinations in EU ... I hope tourists will come back there in the next months.  

Munich, Marienplatz

Bruges, the inner canals

                                                              Paris, Louvre Museum

Rome, theatre of Marcellus    

New barriers between the UK and EU since 2021

The new year begins with "late evening" curfew in many EU countries, such as Italy, France and Germany. The new lockdown measures have come to replace the ideal of the smart city with that of the spectral city, while the US is surpassing 20 million COVID-19 cases, which is almost one fourth of global infections. It's easy to understand the main reason why 25% of global infected people (and 25% of global Covid-19 deaths) are in the US. While many Westerners continue to blame China, these figures show us where the epidemic really began to spread in early 2019.

Meanwhile, the UK leaves the EU Single Market and Customs Union. Actually, even with the new agreement between the UK and EU, since January 2021 businesses will face new barriers to trade in goods and services, and to cross-border mobility and exchanges. The UK, that relies on the EU for roughly half of its total trade in goods, will no longer benefit from the principle of free movement of goods and services. In addition, all the imports in the EU must meet all EU standards and will be subject to regulatory checks and control for safety, health and other public policy purposes.

The EU is the UK's biggest trading partner, as around 65 % of British agricultural exports go to the EU Member States, and 70 % of UK imports originate from the EU countries. In addition, last year Italian cheese exports grew just as fear of no-deal Brexit, as with about 7,000 tons, the UK is one of the leading markets.

We will see what UK's businesses and policy makers will be able to do, considering that a non-member of the EU does not enjoy the same benefits as what EU membership offers. 

Covid-19: lesson learnt! ... It seems.

In many countries with fewer new daily infection cases people are going back to work, as lockdowns to stop the further spread have been lifted across the world. Experts say the scale of a second wave can be reduced  by wearing masks and observing social distancing rules, considering that the future shape of pandemic will be decided by people actions and nature of the virus. Actually, if societies reopen too soon, the first wave of epidemic may not be completely eradicated.

The bad news is that some countries, such as Germany, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, have reported a huge rise in new infections after easing restrictions. That's the main reason why many governments, mainly in the Middle East and East Asia, have been adopting some proactive steps with the aim of push people behaviour in a certain direction. In this perspective, in those countries wearing a mask is required by law. So people can't walk across any store not wearing a mask or without showing their mobile phone app that shows that they are not been tested positive.

In brief, since the Covid-19 epidemic hit the world in early 2020, societies have been learning the lesson: they have to act early and be prepared in terms of testing kits, medical facilities, education of the people, testing capabilities, social distancing rules, and so far.

And last but not least, the easing of lockdowns has showed the importance of individual, emission-free, socially distanced transport, as governments try to prevent spiked in car use, and pollution. And this has paved the way to e-scooters, that are seen as an environmentally friendly options for short journeys. But using e-scooters on roads without sufficient infrastructures,  such as cycle lanes, may be risky. 

How Covid-19 has been spreading in Italy

The first cases, in the most affected country by the coronavirus outside China, were two visitors from the Chinese town of Wuhan, the epicenter of the infection. 

The next day Italy became the first country to block all flights to and from China. But the virus was already spreading: a man known as "patient one", with severe flu-like symptoms, was only diagnosed  on the second visit hospital after 36 hours. He had had a dinner party and had gone running a marathon. Northern Italy was sealed off quickly.

Within a few day, exactly on March 11, the lockdown was extended to the entire country. Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, ordered all but most essential businesses to close until at least April the 3rd. The entire country, home to over than 60 million people, was, and still is, on lockdown. Italy became first democratic country since the second world war to impose a nationwide lockdown.

Meanwhile, other countries, such as Spain, Germany, and the UK, that would have learnt the lesson from Italian experience, allowed the virus to spread silently until the last week of March 2020.

On the one hand, we saw that some Italian hospitals and care centres for elderly people became the epicenters of transmission. On the other hand, Italy couldn't endorse the same approach as we saw in Japan and Singapore, because there weren't enough coronavirus detection testing kits to meet demand. Consequently, the high rate of asymptomatic cases complicated efforts to stop the spread of the infection, because many hospitals didn't test people who hadn't a fever and flu-like symptoms.

Now, in late March, it is not too late to act in the rest of Europe. Many lives can be saves, as Italy has become the symbol of the challenge facing the Europe's public health system.

Italy is compelled to generate 23 Billion by increasing taxes

This week Italy's Interior Minister, Mr. Salvini, is calling for early elections, while other parties are afraid of going to go to elections and loosing influence. From a political point of view, it is not time for elections in Italy, as the country needs to do an agreement with the EU and rebuild its political agenda. But it is also true that if a new government is not formed, Italian Parliament will be likely dissolved.  

The mainly problem of this political crisis is that many companies and strong economic powers, which have always backed Mr. Salvini from North-East Italy, now claim to be better heard from the government. Salvini's economic idea  is for growth of national product and measures which should encourage enterprises' productivity. But this couldn't be done without solving the problem at the moment of Italy's public debt, which is double than Germany and one fourth higher than France. Italy travels around 132% in terms of public debt/GDP ratio, and Salvini said this is not a problem. 

Salvini is the typical strong man that far right movements would like to see in power. Unfortunately, he is backed by economic powers which are interested in Federalism and Flat tax, and the Italian Prime Minister, Mr. Conte disagrees with these two points just mentioned. Flat tax means more money to the 10% richer and less money to the public budget. Consequently, Italian people would get less public services, such as healthcare, education, public transport, ect.  

Meanwhile, in order to comply with EU's deficit rules, Italy has vowed to the European Commission that it will be generating € 23 Billion by increasing sales taxes from the start of next year. There are no doubts that Italy needs a new stable government with the aim of helping to raise economic growth rate, create more jobs, and decrease public debt.

Still human trafficking

After the Dutch vessel "Sea-Watch" had been seized by Italian authorities, because of illegal immigration and human trafficking, its German commander, Carola Rackete,  was  defined as another communist with a lot of money.  Actually, Ms. Rackete, who is also a  veteran of a German NGO, is looking for the opportunity of being admired. She's looking for popularity. In addition, she is backed by criminals at a global level, people who are interested in business related to illegal immigration. 

If Ms. Rackete really wanted to help people, she would go to Africa. I know Italian volunteers who have been building orthopedic centers in Madagascar and sewage systems in Uganda. That's what some African countries need. We haven't to steel their human resources.  And those unscrupulous people who exploit any opportunity to steal human resources from Africa present them selves as communist, socialist or democrat.    

With the aim of trying to stop human trafficking through the Mediterranean sea, Italian Parliament recently adopted a decree pledging fines up to 50,000 Euros for captain and owner who take vessels in Italy without authorisation. The decree was criticised by the United Nations, which called sea rescue a "humanitarian imperative".

As we have seen, policy makers who want to stop human trafficking are defined as populists, and sometimes as fascists by the media establishment.  I hope people began to understand who are really fascists. it's time to understand who really are criminals in our country and in the EU.

Contradictory statements about Khashoggi death

On 19th October, seventeen days after the Khashoggi's disappearance, the Saudi government said the journalist had been killed. 
According to the Turkish government this brutal crime, which hurts the human consciousness, has been planned. The killing of the Saudi journalist continues to provoke reactions around the world, as some EU countries are calling for a credible investigation. Germany has stopped Saudi weapon deal and France has suspended all diplomatic visit to the kingdom. 

The U.S. is adopting negative measures towards Saudi Arabia, although at first President Trump said Saudi explanation was credible, stressing to important relations with the kingdom. He also said that Millions of American jobs are more important than imposing sanctions. 
Meanwhile Saudi government still continues to give contradictory statements. Who ordered Jamal Khashoggi's savage killing? He was killed by eighteen Saudi nationals, who have been detained in Saudi Arabia: who sent them to Turkey? And where is the body? The world needs  answers.
What happened with the Saudi Journalist Jamal Khashoggi tell us that human rights is a major issue in the Arab world and today in Saudi Arabia.

Cold war is going on

The attempted assassination of two people on the British soil, on 4th March, may be considered a watershed in terms of global confrontation. According to the British PM it is an infringement of international law and chemical weapons convention, and investigators don't need other evidence. 

Although Russian President said his country hasn't any connection with this case, it seems that the chemical weapon involved was specifically developed by Russia. In this perspective, the attack was a punishment for defection of a man who is a former Russia Intelligence officer. It might be also considered a message to others. 

We are seeing that the most important Western countries are going to prevent Russia from doing that in the future. That's why Britain is acting, and U.S., France and Germany  will likely do the same. 

Actually, cold war is going on, and in some places, such as Syria and Yemen, it is really hot. In the Middle East, for istance, America is supporting Kurdish forces and Russia is supporting governmental forces. At the same time, with regards to Yemen conflict, where we can see a challenge between two regional powers, Saudi Arabia is buying weapons from the U.K. and Iran is allied with Russia.

More than thirty years ago Samuel Hungtington forecasted a clash of civilizations. Unfortunately,  we can say that once again he was really right. 

How 2017 is going to an end

Since President Trump decisions on status of Jerusalem, most tourists kept away from the occupied West Bank city of Bethlehem: Palestinians have celebrated Christmas amid tensions because of protests across the West Bank and Gaza Strip against the US flagrant violation of the UN Charter, of Internatinal Law and  of the relevant UN Resolutions.
During the last UN general Assembly, 128 countries voted against Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, and only eight stayed with it. On the one hand,  four of the eight countries that stood with the US are tiny Pacific Islands. On the other hand, US allies, such as France, Britain and Germany voted for the UN resolution.

So to sum up, the last month of 2017 confirms, once again, that the US is no longer credible as mediator in the peace process. That's why so many believe that President Trump has isolated the US. Actually, with regard to climate change he recently did the same.   

Yemen and Syria, in addition to Palestinian people,  are still paying a terrible price for the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. And some expert say that tensions may escalate into a major regional conflict including Lebanon.   

"Alternative für deutschland" will be the third biggest party in Parliament

Just to say that after German people voted on Sunday, 24th September, the "Alternative für deutschland" party was set to enter the Bundestag for the first time. With its 80 seats, it will be the third biggest party in Parliament.

In 2013 an economics professor founded "Alternative für deutschland" party, which was soon known as eurosceptic and liberal. The new political group increased sharply since 2015 to 2016, after Ms Merkel had decided to let in more than one Million refugees.

Although it is said that the party may be considered in an extreme rightwing position, Germany's election results haven't been affecting European stock markets.

New Bundestag on 24th September

This year, on 24th September, Federal elections will be held in Germany in the aim to elect the new 598 members of the Bundestag. Consequently, the new German Parliament will have to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members.

According to most surveys, Mrs Merkel is likely to be re-elected, although the populist "Alternative for Germany" party looks set to enter the Bundestag for the first time.
As reported by uk.investing.com on 14th August, if she weren't to win the election, it would be the blackest of black swan". And it's easy to think how the market would be affected by the political shift.

The only religion with a doctrine of warfare

In 2015 during a coordinated suicide bomb-attack 130 people were killed in Paris and St. Denis, and a suicide bombing in Belgium killed 32 civilians. On 14th July, 2016, 86 people were killed in Nice while they were celebrating Bastille day. And this year attackers in London, Manchester, Berlin and Barcelona killed 62 people.

 

Considering the amount of people  killed in Western countries by Islamist  extremists, we may argue that those bomb-Attacks can't be categorized as terrorism. The use of violence, which we have seen in the last three year in Paris, Brussels, Manchester, Barcelona, London and Berlin, isn't in order to achieve political aims or to force  the government to do something. It's really a war. According to Robert Spencer, "Islam is not  moderate or peaceful. It's the only religion with a doctrine  of warfare".

New markets

It is a wide perception among Europeans that Western countries  can only lose from East Asia's success in terms of growth and employment. Development in one part of the world may require lower growth in another and Europeans are worried about competition from developing countries, such as China, India and Brazil. But what are they worried about? Since 2007 German, British and Dutch export to China and India has risen steadly. German car makers and chemical companies are focused on what is going on in East Asia economies. The expansion of educational products and services has become a good opportunity for UK.
At the same time, other developing countries, such as Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, may soon show an extraordinary growth in demand for consumer products because people, who live in those parts ot the world, may desire the same consumer goods that we all desire in Western countries. Of course, a change is always demanding, especially for those workers with narrow or manual skill. That's why most experts estimate that 2 billion people are going to be brought into the global middle class as some of the most challenging parts of East Asia and South America economies develop. Consequently, 4.9 billion people are predicted to be middle class in the world by 2030. As Jim O'Neal wrote in 2012, since a couple of years we have been seeing  Indians paying prices to go up in ski lifts in Switzerland in the summer, Chinese traders offering rewards to native Parisians to buy them Louis Vuitton bags and Tibetan street traders walking across high mountain ranges in the Himalayas using mobile telephones. 

On the other hand, some European peripheral countries situated on the edge of Mediterranean sea have been seeing their unemployment rate rising sharply since 2008. For instance, Italy's unemployment rate has risen at 12.5 % and this obviously means that Italian policy-makers have made something wrong from a political point of view. They are still predicting disaster, quite routinely, in order to justify the distruction of social security and other popular programs. At the same time, companies investing in Italy, Greece and Spain have been becoming entangled in bureaucracy, poorly drafted regulation and corruption cases. Ambiguous tax laws for investors exacerbate the challenge.
Morevover, as it is known, the current economic crisis has led many South European companies to lay off some of their employees. This explains partly why direct investments in South Europe countries have been weaker than in those parts of the world above mentioned. If South Europe coutries had a friendlier environment for investors, employment (and investment) would grow gradually.
It's much better to be open-minded and think more globally. 

(photos used with cc permission from Stefano, http://cavnero.blogspot.it/ )