UN Climate Change Conference, UK 2021

In 2015, during the Conference on climate change, many countries signed up to limit global warming. These countries will get togheter again in November, at the Scottish Event Campus, in Glasgow, with the aim of discuss the escalating issue of climate change.

On the one hand, people around the world are aware of what is happening in terms of global warming. On the other hand, for the biggest World's CO2 exporters, such as Qatar, Norway, and Iran, oil and gas has been a very important  source of income. That's why it is politically difficult to turn down some activities, which can create terrible impact that can not be reversed. But the time has come to turn down those activities.

Every country can make something, and we need to act now, as climate change  affects us all. This is a global challenge.

https://www.sec.co.uk/cop26

Since 2020 circumstances have changed

With regards to Scotland  independence referendum, a British Conservative polician, Michael Gove, recently said Scotland is disrespecting the 2014 referendum results, considering that Scottish people already held a referendum. Actually, as Mr. Gove mentioned, the 2014 independence referendum would be "once in a generation event", and Scotland agreed on this point. But since 2020 circumstances have changed because Scotland will be out of both the Single Market and the Custom union. In other words, Scottish people will be out of the EU against their will.

It is easy to see the 2016 Brexit referendum's results changed everything, and only 37% of the electorate voted leave or remain in the Single Market. In addition, not one person born in the XXI century voted in favour of leaving the EU.

Consequently, as it is known, the UK Constitutional principles, the international law, and the Self-determination principle gives the right to the Scottish people to hold another independence referendum, considering that since 2020 circumstances have changed.

That's the reason why if Mr. Michael Gove and his political followers continued to talk about the disrespect of the results of the 2014 Scottish referendum, people might get a wrong idea. 

The Single Market is vital to Scottish companies

Since June 2016 most Irish people have been thinking what happens if Scotland remains in the EU by leaving the UK. Like Scotland, the majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Not surprisingly, Northern Ireland may become an independent state of the EU in its own right, considering that its territory is larger than some existing EU members states, such as Luxembourg and Malta. 
With regards to Scotland, three out of four its international trading markets are in the EU (Germany, France, Netherlands, etc.). On June 23, 2016, Scotland voted "Remain" by 62% to 38%, while 55.8 in Northern Ireland voted to stay in the E.U. and 44.2 % "Leave". People who live in those peripheral countries of the UK disagree with the exit from the custom union, as traders fear Brexit will see Scotland and Northern Ireland lose access to the EU Single Market.

With food and drink exports reaching £ 5 billion, Scotland's products are in demand in the world over. As a matter of fact, Scotland is the third largest producer of farmed salmon in the world. Scotch whisky accounts for almost 80% of Scotland's food and beverages export market, not to mention Scottish sales of oil, gas and refined products to the rest of the world.

Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, but against Brexit in 2016, and will probably be driven out of the EU against it will. Of course, most Scottish people think the European association of countries trading with each other without restrictions or tariffs is vital to Scottish economy. For this reason, Scotland should hold another referendum to leave the UK.

As already mentioned by many experts, as soon as the UK leave the EU, British economy will slow sharply, as the country will pay tariffs on goods and services it will export into the EU. For this reason, since June 2016 British business leaders have been afraid the UK will not be an attractive place to do business. According to figures, almost half of UK's exports are to the EU, therefore it's easy to know the impact of Brexit on the UK's economy. For instance, British car makers, who are the UK's biggest exporters, have warned that the UK's departure from the EU Single Market poses the "biggest threat in a generation".

European policy makers have been underlining that whoever decides to leave the European association of countries, which are trading with each other without restrictions or tariffs, cannot expect all obligations to be omitted while keeping its privileges. According to the domino theory, other Members States would follow the UK with the aim to leave the EU. Not surprisingly, things in the EU may get a little out of hand, considering that many anti-europeanism leaders face important elections in the course of this year. Meanwhile, after the House of Commons had rejected the withdrawal agreement, the European Council proposed a one-year flexible extension, with the aim to allow the UK to exit as soon as possible.  

Pressure for a second EU referendum

On December 3rd, Mrs. May's Spokeman made clear there will be no new referendum while she is Prime Minister. Notwithstanding the Prime Minister publicly ruled out another vote on Brexit time and time again, since January 2018 we have seen a build-up of pressure for a second EU referendum. The Prime Minister's deputy David Lidington, and Justice Secretary David Gauke, have been in talks with labour politicians to see if there is support for a second vote or a Norway-style deal. Norway, which is not member of the EU, has a high level of access to EU market and almost the same level of tariff and trade barriers with EU countries. On the other hand, Norway accepts a relevant amount of EU regulations and directives, which include the "four freedoms", the free movement of  goods, services, people and capital.

The British Prime Minister knows that her proposal on Brexit, which has been agreed by 27 EU countries, hasn't the votes needed to get a majority in Parliament. The vote on Mrs May's deal will return to the House of Commons by the end of January 2019. 

If she were to fail to secure the votes required, then a second Brexit referendum could be on the table. Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party and a number of conservative Members of Parliament would back a people vote. At the moment we can still see three scenarios for the future of the UK-UE relationship: accept a negotiated Brexit, stay in the EU or leave with no deal.   

Three Brexit scenarios

As it's  known, the UK is going to leave the  EU  on 29  March  2019, thanks to 52  percent  of  people  who  voted  in favour of leaving the common  market. And  if  the  UK  and  EU were not  to  reach  a  deal  before  March  2019, consumers and businesses  in England, Scotland, Wales  and Northern Ireland would have to pay more for goods and services.

In other words, a no-deal Brexit would be related to slower processing times for payments between the UK and EU, and custom duties would be paid for goods going to and coming from the European single market. 

At the moment most experts argue there are three possible scenarios:

1. If Mrs May's deal is rejected by the Parliament, the UK would be plunged into crisis.
2. The UK and EU could reach a good deal. In this case little would be likely to change when the UK leaves the EU.
3. According to opinion polls, British society remains deeply divided over Brexit. That's why a second referendum may be "on the table".

With regard to the third scenario above mentioned, we should consider that on 23 June 2016 about 12,000,000 registered voters didn't vote the EU Membership Referendum. We don't know how they would answer the following question: Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union ? And although in June 2016 Leave's margin of victory was 1,269,501 votes, Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted to remain. 

The most prosperous EU's regions claim the right to form a new state

With regard to Catalonia's independence declaration, which was passed by the Parliament of Catalonia on 27 October, most experts say there's no doubt that, on the long term, an independent Catalonia may be a good thing in terms of competition and regulation. Actually, Catalonia is one of the most prosperous of EU's regions.

Catalans only accounts for about 16% of the Spanish population, and 19% of Spain economy comes from Catalonia, which contributes $ 263 Billion a year to the overall Spanish economy.

Although Catalonia is bigger than many EU Member States, a very important condition for independence, to be an economic success, is that it happens peacefully. Unfortunately, Spanish government does not agree with Catalonia independence, and from a political point of view this is very different from the Scottish case, where the British Prime Minister said Scotland would hold a legal referendum. As it is known, in 2014 Scottish people voted to stay in the UK, but against Brexit in 2016. That's why Scotland should hold another referendum in order to leave the UK.

Catalans are not alone in the desire to form a new independent state and there are longstanding independence claims in other EU's regions, such as Wallonia, South Tyrol and Silesia, where people want more flexibility.  

This shows why populist movements in Europe are able to give an answer to the feel people are losing control of their own fate. As we have seen, during the last twenty-five years some countries grew enormously after they had become independent. Take for example the huge economic development of Slovakia, which split from Czech Republic in 1993.

In this perspective, Switzerland political system, in the hearth of Europe and outside the European economic area, may be a model: the Confoederatio Helvetica's decentralised entities, the Cantons, are allowed to be flexible in terms of taxation. Actually, Switzerland's federal legislation leaves a respectable amount of self-determination to the 26 Cantons, which may collect income taxes to finance their affairs, such as education system, universities, armed police forces and hospitals. And this helps to keep the country togheter.  

View of a pedestrian area in Barcelona (Catalonia)

"Europe will not be made all at once" (Robert Shuman)

On May 7th the result of the French Presidential elections showed that we will not see the "Frexit" in the next years. America's plan is aimed at breaking the EU into smaller pieces, and it didn't work in France. And since June 2016 most people in Scotland and Northern Ireland, who  voted to remain in the EU, have been valuating the bill which has to be paid for exiting the EU. 

According to the terms of the negotiations, which were framed by the EU in  a paper published on March 29th, Britain must pay price for leaving the EU. It  would amount to about US $ 60 billion, including negotiation costs, such as the hire of facilities for the talks, meals and other subsistence allowances.

It's easy to see why Scotland and Northern Ireland are trying  to become two independent states of the EU in their own right.

Cloud of uncertainty over Scotland which leaves the EU

After the UK's Prime Minister had triggered Article 50 of EU Treaty on March 29th, 2017, some Scottish policy makers explained once again how is important to leave the UK through a new independence referendum. And since June 2016 most Irish people have been thinking what happens if Scotland remains in the EU by leaving the UK. Like Scotland, the majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Not surprisingly, Northern Ireland may become an independent state of the EU in its own right, considering that its territory is larger than some existing EU members states, such as Luxembourg and Malta, It may become an independent state of the EU in its own right.

Most economist had assumed that after the vote to leave the EU the British economy will slow sharply. Of course, the UK will pay tariffs on goods and services it will export into the EU. And British business leaders are already afraid the UK will not be an attractive place to do business. 

According to figures, half of British exports are to the EU. As consequence, it is easy to know the impact of Brexit on the UK. For instance, British car makers, who are the UK's biggest exporters, have warned that the UK's departure from the European Union poses the “biggest threat in a generation”.

With regard to Scotland, three out of four its international trading markets are in the EU (France, Germany, Netherland, and USA). With food and drink exports reaching over £ 5 Billions, Scotland products are in demand in the world over.  As a matter of fact, Scotland is the third largest producer of farmed Atlantic salmon in the world, and Scotch whisky account for almost 80% of Scotland's food and beverages export market.

In this perspective, Scottish Prime Minister  recently said she is "fairly certain"  there will be a second referendum on Scottish independence, considering the cloud of uncertainty  over Scotland's future.

Post-Brexit

It isn't easy to understand why some British Ministers are still so optimistic about Brexit. While the UK's Prime Minister triggers Article 50 later this month, the Irish republican party's leader says that "We must defend the democratic mandate of the people to remain in the EU". That's why Northern Ireland should hold a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland. In addition, as it is already known, a decision on calling a new Scottish independence referendum could be made within weeks: the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, recently said that plans to take the UK out of the EU's Single market have brought a second Scottish independence referendum "undoubtedly" closer.

Actually, it seems that the British Government is now on an unpleasantly difficult situation: on the one hand, Mrs. May says that British people would have truly left the EU when they would be in control of their own laws. On the other hand, she is still looking for the "Greatest possible access" to EU's Single market after leaving it.

According to an article published in "The Economist" on March 4th, 2017, The European Court of Justice will probably control any transitional arrangement which will be made between post-Brexit UK and EU. If the UK were to need trading relationships with the EU, it wouldn't be free from the shackles of the Luxembourg's Court of Justice. 

Since the 1960s European Court of Justice have been supervising any trade deal signed by the EU. And all non-EU countries that seek close access to the EU's Single Market, such as Switzerland, Iceland and Norway,  have been following the Luxembourg's rules. 

As a result, notwithstanding the country has voted to leave the EU, Britain will not reach the aim to take the UK out of the European Court of Justice. Moreover, Scotland and Northern Ireland will try to leave the UK, and refugees and immigrates will be probably allowed to remain in Britain. It isn't easy to understand why someone is optimistic about Brexit.

Scottish people are debating about the future of the UK

Last week I was in Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, where I didn't see any flag of the UK. There were only flags with St. Andrew's cross everywhere. I could read Scottish newspapers and magazines, which reported politicians' points of view about the economic consequences of Brexit and Scotland independence.
A very meaningful heading at the top of a newspaper's page reported a piece of a Scottish politician's speech: "We have been under the heel of foreign influence and power for 300 years".
As it is known, in 1707 the Act of Union brought Scotland even closer to Britain by creating a single parliament. In 1999 the Scottish Parliament reconvened for the first time in nearly 300 years, ushering in a new era for the Scottish people. Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, but against Brexit in 2016, and will probably be driven out of the EU against its will. As a result, Scottish people should hold another referendum in order lo leave the UK. 

In this perspective, the UK Prime Minister is proposing a free trade agreement for goods and services between Britain and EU Member States, which will give to British companies the maximum freedom  to trade with and operate in the European market.  With regard to Britain's imminent departure from the EU, Theresa May specifies that the agreement doesn't mean membership of single market, but she is seeking the greatest possible access to it through an ambitious free trade agreement.   

How could British companies get access to the single market while the UK is still ready to leave the EU? European decision makers will likely disagree with Mrs. May's free trade agreement, because it may be a dangerous starting point.
According to the domino theory, other Member States would follow the UK and would leave the EU. And, not surprisingly, things in the EU may get a little out of hand, considering that  many anti-europeanism leaders face important election in the course of this year.

E.U. trade is vital to Scottish companies

Since British people voted to leave the E.U., by 52% to 48%, the unity of the U.K. has been under strain. On June 23, Scotland voted "Remain" by 62 % to 38 %, while 55,8 % in Northern Ireland voted to stay in the E.U. and 44,2 % "Leave". In particular, people who live in those two peripheral countries of the U.K. disagree with the exit from the custom union, as traders fear Brexit will see Scotland and Northern Ireland lose access to the E.U.'s single market.

In reality, according to the UK Government economic service, imports from Europe to the U.K. account for only 7 % of E.U. exports, whereas the exports Britain sends from its territory to Europe account 44 % of the total exports.

British Government's plans call for U.K. to officially leave the E.U. by May 2018, and underline that the U.K. "is leaving the E.U.", not Europe. And the U.K. will not sign easily new partnerships with E.U. members, considering that, since June 23, European policy makers have been underlining that whoever decides to leave "that family" cannot expect all obligations to be omitted while keeping its privileges. On the one hand, Brexit allows the U.K. to implement a better control along its borders in terms of immigration. On the other hand, that referendum means the exit from a successfully trading area.

In this perspective, it's easy to see that Scotland and Northern Ireland will behave on the basis of their self interest. Scotland's Prime Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, plans to stay in the single market, as the European association of countries trading with each other without restrictions or tariffs  is vital to Scottish companies.