Pope Francis' thoughts about Ukraine-Russia war

Last week we saw Turkey's diplomatic engaged both with the United States and Russia. The next step will be made by the US president, as he is going to hold separate phone calls with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts.

As mentioned by Pope Francis in a 2022 interview, "NATO barking at Russia's door" caused the Kremlin to "react badly and unleash the conflict". 

The interview was published by the Italian newpaper "Corriere della Sera" and other International news agencies.

                             Photo courtesy by the lebanese website https://nna-leb.gov.lb/en/

It's easy to understand what was the reaction of the so-called Western world, considering that from that day on Pope Francis has never again expressed his point of view on the reasons that triggered Moscow's reaction.

On a sunny Monday I wrote down this post today, which is not related to tourist destinations or beautiful corners of the world. I know that some topics, such as Ukraine-Russia ceasefire or Palestine genocide, are boring. Sorry for that. It was just to share my thoughts, as it seems that those who barked at the Kremlin's gates (according to 2022 Pope Francis' interview) are now trying to make a negotiation.

Have a nice new week. 

Prolonged the war in Ukraine

Investment management companies are still seeking to prolong the war in Ukraine to keep the cost of rebuilding higher daily. 

If we were to analyse the main geopolics event, that have took place since late 2020, we would see more wars compared with the previous four years: the Iran-Israel esclation, the Ukraine debacle, the war in Lebanon, the Taiwan's provocation and the Gaza's genocide. And with regards to the genocide just mentioned, after Israel's president had left 70k tonnes free-fall bombes on civilians, schools, hospitals and refugee shelters, he asked the United States Congress: "Give us the tools faster and we'll finish the job faster" ... and they gave him a standing ovation 53 times. 

Ukraine's right to defend itself is praised by many international leaders while Russia's invasion is condemned, but commentators said the same cannot be said about Israel occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which are Palestinian territories.

In 1996 Samuel P. Hungtington wrote "The clash of civilizations", which still is one of the most  influential books of our wartime era. But all that we are witnessing is not a clash between civilizations, it's a clash between civilization and barbarism.

Saint Peterburg's Russia-Africa summit

Russian President promises grains, debt write-off, as Russia's government seeks Africa allies. Moscow also promotes joint fight against global "neocolonialism".

African leaders, who are attending a summit in Saint Peterburg, agree on this.

Northeast China

Last week, on June 8, I shared some pictures which a friend of mine had sent from Northeast China.  I was glad to see some friends of our blogging community ( Veronica , Tanza , Anna and Ashok ) enjoyed his photos. Thanks for the appreciation! He had also sent these ones.

With regards to Northeast China, I have just heard that part of the country will start using Russia's Vladivostok port, reducing freight transport. This means that distance will decrease by more than 800 km from industrial base of Northeast China provinces.

The bad news is that the unemployment rate among young Chinese people has been growing since late 2022, reaching 19.6 % in  early April 2023.

I hope you will have a nice new week!  

Fueling the Ukraine-Russia war by sending weapons to Kyiv

With regards to the ongoing armed conflict in East Europe, I think that opposing the horrible hypocrisy of fueling the Ukraine-Russia war by sending weapons to Kyiv's government is not anti-EU. It's not anti-Ukrainian. It's not pro-Russian. The European working class have nothing to gain from this war, and everything to lose.

 

Not to mention of a list of ongoing armed conflicts that are taking place around the world. There are wars in Ethiopia and Yemen, and an humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan and Myanmar.

Farmland in late Autumn

Just a few pictures of the hills that I saw yesterday while I was driving through the countryside. The owner of the farm (picture below) sells olive oil and veggies. I sometimes buy fruits and veggies that hasn't been shipped from other  continents.

I noticed that farmland shows its unusual brown and beige earthy colours in late Autumn, as it is systematic used to produced food for humans.

Some blogging friends, who live in Canada and North-East USA, are already showing, on their blogs, their environs covered with the first snow. Here, on the 42° parallel and close to the Mediterranean Sea, it is not the case. Probably we will see our environs covered with snow in early winter.

Meanwhile, Christmas decoretions are already along squares and streets.

On the Ukraine-Russia front, I am sorry to hear that the Russian government is ready for negotiations, but there's the USA's refusal to recognise new territories.  This shows that Ukraine government doesn't decide anything in terms of peace agreement. It's so sad! Poor Ukrainian people are suffering while their government isn't allowed to make any choice in terms of negotiations. Actually, other world powers, which are not directly involved in this war, will choose the terms of the peace agreement.

For instance, in my opinion Russians could leave some seized territories in East and South Ukraine if Ukrainians were not to join NATO. This is my thought that could be one of the terms of the negotiation table. 

The good news is that the USA's president would be ready to meet the Russian leader. 

Italy's 2022 general election

 

It seems a right-wing coalition will win the Italy's election which will be held on 25 September 2022. This means that far-right leader, Giorgia Meloni, should be the new prime minister.

The rise of energy prices, which is strictly related to the Ukraine war, has become a key issue in the election, due to cost of living crisis. That's the main raison why many Italians hope next government will drop Russian sanctions. There are some countries, like India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, that continue to hold financial dealings and economic relationships with both Russia and the EU (and US & UK). This means that the politicians of the three countries just above mentioned are strongly interested in their own people. And, most importantly, they are not compelled to follow any puppeteer.

Many Italians hope their govenment (and the EU) will do the same. Unfortunately, there are proofs of some Western multinational companies interest in drawing the fighting in Ukraine for as long as possible. They can continue to do this thanks to their puppets.

Laundering Russian gas

Since Ukraine invasion (and Western sanctions) began early this year, Russia has been gradually reducing gas supply to Europe, first to 40% of total capacity, and then to 20%. Consequently, some EU countries have been looking for alternative sources. And Europe's companies have started to buy gas from Chinese refineries, that are the largest importers of gas from Russia (up to 60%). 

This means that Russians sell liquefied natural gas to China, that has no use for such imported product. That's why China has no choice but to resell Russian gas to Europe. In other words, Europe's countries don't buy Russia's gas directly, but they're buying the same Russian product from elsewhere. The world is filled with so much hypocrisy!

Black sheep

A dear friend of mine has just sent me the picture below. But I haven't understood if it is related to the pandemic (and its vaccine's moral obbligation) or the energy crisis. Otherwise, the picture may also be related to the ongoing war that began in late February close to EU borders. Does the Ukraine-Russia war become a never ending war? ... as we've already seen in Syria, Libya, Yemen, etc.

Meanwhile, people who rule the world are trying to trigger another war on the Pacific front (East Asia) ... $ 1,100 Billion missiles will be shipped to the island of Taiwan as soon as possible.  

Nice weekend to the blogging community :-)

Madrid's NATO summit

Good news from the Madrid's NATO summit: the North Atlantic intergovernmental military alliance at the moment doesn't have specific plan in deploying weapons to Sweden and Finland, for the simple reason that the two nordic countries are not members of NATO for now.

The problem is that Putin said Russia would have to answer in kind if NATO infrastructure were to be deployed to Sweden and Finland.

A friend of mine took the two pictures above some years ago in Sweden. 

Exit of the biggest Italian energy company from Russia

 

This week the great news is that Italy's biggest manufacturer and distributor of energy and gas, Enel SpA, will sell in the next three months its 56.43% stake in Russia to local investors. Established in Russia in 2004, the Italian group will follow similar moves by the world's biggest energy companies, such as Shell and BP after Russian government's invasion of East Ukraine.

In addition, the deal is expected to have a positive effect on the group's consolidated net debt of about 550 million euros. The global reach of the Italian biggest utility extends from Europe to Latin America and India, that's why the company's ordinary financial results would not be affected by the deal to sell the stake in the Russian subsidiary.

Its easy to forecast that other Western multinational companies, which have been established in Russia since long time, are going to do the same.

Wheat shortage crisis

 

There is a great talk about global food crisis fueled by the war in East Europe, as Ukraine plays a major role in the global food system. So while the Ukraine-Russia war directly threatens global food security, wheat prices hit record high in recent days. According to Wionews.com, Russia and Ukraine are two of the top wheat exporters, with respectively 17% and 10% of global export. 

The big question is when will wheat prices come down? Russia and Ukraine have been exchanging accusations over obstructing the movement of wheat shipment through the Black Sea. In my opinion this is a false problem rather than a real barrier, which can't be solved thanks to Intermodal transfer. 

With regards to Ukraine, the wheat could be shipped from the two ports of Costanta (Romania) and Varna (Bulgaria), considering there is an efficient railway system from Odesa (Ukraine) to the two towns just mentioned. Intermodal transfer may involve rail and ship, due to the fact that the four biggest wheat importers (Egypt, Sudan, Turkey, and Yemen) are located close to the Mediterranean area.

New arms race in Europe

I've noticed that world's policy-makers are not worried about the new arms race that has been triggered in East Europe. On the contrary, since Russia-Ukraine war began about three months ago the US has sent more the $ 3 billion in military equipments to Ukraine. Not to mention of other countries, such as China and the UK that are also involved in shipping weapons respectively to Russia and Ukraine. 

In addition, other European countries located close to Russian and Ukrainian border, such as Poland, Estonia, and Romania, have also been buying weapons and missiles. With its 37% of global arms export, the U.S. is world's largest weapons exporter. There are no doubts that military-industry complex and contractors are winning this war.

The picture above, which shows the Azovstal steelworks in the devastated Ukrainian city of Mariupol, was published on 6th May, 2020 by the BBC website: 

https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-61348541 

I have got that powerful picture via email from Willie, our blogging friend from Blandford.

2021 military exercises close to the Russian border

If we were to get a wider perspective of the Russian's invasion of the East Ukraine's territories, we would need same information about the military drills held in 2021 on the Ukrainian territory by US and UK. 

In June 2021 US, UK, and Australia (which is not a NATO member), held naval exercises in the Black Sea and Southern Ukraine. One month later, The US, Poland, and Lithuania held another military exercise involving more than 1200 troops in West Ukraine. In addition, from 20th September to 1st October 2021 large scale war games with US, UK, and same NATO and Ukrainians troops took place close to the Belarus border. 

As it is known, Since early 1990s Ukraine has been a buffer state between Westerners and Russia. On the other hand, according to a core principle of international law, there is the right of people to decide their own destiny in the international order (principle of self-determination). That's why it's not easy to say who is right. Obviously, that has nothing to do with shellings of residential neighborhoods, railway stations and hospitals, as we have already seen in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.   

Since Ukraine war began in late February, Russians have been knoking on Finland's door. In this viewpoint, the geopolitical neutral Scandinavian country was recently hit by two cyberattacks and an airspace violation by a Russian plane. If Finland's people or policy-makers of Finland try to join NATO, it would be a strategic mistake. Finland has been successfully developing economic ties with both Russia and EU. I think it would be a terrible mess for the Finnish people. 

Down the war path

I think we can not see the war in Ukraine as an isolated event.  Instead we should also look the conflict in East Europe as an integral part of a geopolitical strategy,  due to the fact that some countries are fanning its fire by applying political and economic tools. And while the Ukrainian President is still looking for partners who will give him weapons and more military assistance, the sanctions will severely damage the economy of many countries. 

In an interesting article published two days ago by an Indian news network, the author, Palki Sharma, explains three main mistakes made by the Ukraine President. According to the Indian journalist, Mr. Zelensky over-stimated Western support. In addition, he misread Ukraine importance to the Western countries. And last but not least, the Ukrainian President also misread Putin's intent to invade his country.

On the 1st of September 2021, Mr. Zelensky publicly said he thought the US President, Biden, would personally support Ukraine with regards to NATO membership. In April 2021 Zelensky seemed very confident in US & EU support due to the fact that his country would never be alone against Russian aggression.

But this doesn't mean that Western countries led Ukraine down the war path.

I do hope Russian invasion will go to an end soon!

Still room for negotiation

The Ukrainian President, Zelenskij, recently urged the EU to "prove that you are with us" in Ukraine war with Russia. As it is known, the German carmaker Volkswagen has two factories and around 4,000 employees in Russia. ENI, the Italian multinational oil and gas company, and the Russian company Gazprom  have 50% each in the Blue Stream gas pipeline to Turkey. The Norwegian company Equinor has minority stakes in three Russian oilfields. The French carmaker Renault makes 8% of its earnings in Russia (source: Citibank).

In this context, how can the Ukrainian President be so naive? Does he really think that the EU may help his country? I hope the diplomacy will be able to do a good job. There is still room for a good negotiation! It is not too late!

Civilians in the outskirts of Kyiv

If Ukraine (or Georgia) were to join NATO, other countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakistan, Uzbekistan, etc. would join NATO soon. That's why Mr. Putin can't tolerate such considerable geopolitical problem, as Russia would be surrounded by many NATO countries.

Unfortunately, when two groups don't deal about something the solution is war. But I accept military against military in war field. Those who are not fighting should not be attacked as this violate their human rights. 

Thank you to Willie, a dear blogging friend from the UK, as he sent me the powerful image above.

$ 92 a barrel ... until now

If the geopolitical clouds of uncertainty, that we have over East Europe, were to materialize, they would certainly have an impact on energy prices. And there are risk and uncertainty due to the fact that incresead cost of energy may affect the whole structure of prices.

Actually, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine would have the potential to drive oil & gas prices much higher. There is a very good chance crude oil would reach $ 100 a barrel. It remains to be seen whether EU countries could handle shortfall in gas if Russia were to halt supplies.

In the meantime, it seems that Russia could be binding its time to launch an invasion to Ukraine until after Beijing Winter Games, as China is an important ally on the Eurasian continent. Russia doesn't risk its good relation with China.   

Taliban advance as the US withdraws

On August 15th, Taliban fighters entered the outskirts of the Afghan capital virtually unopposed. This indicated the end of a Western political experiment which lasted two decades. In this context, it seems not easy to understand the reason why the US and the EU have been ignoring Taliban's cruelty toward Afghan people. 

Actually, the main objective of the world superpower is always the same: control over oil and gas resources which are located in central Asia (mainly Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan). Taliban and the US are now allies in that corner of the world where there is still a Russian (and maybe Chinese) influence.  

Russian-Chinese cooperation

Since the US has begun its trade war on various fronts, including custom duties imposed by Trump's Administration, China and Russia have been trying to strenghten their ties. The leaders of two bigger Eurasian powers say their countries are closer than ever been.

Actually, Russia is considered by Beijing's Government as a source of energy, and Chinese activity in Russia's infrastructures project is on the rise. In addition, the two countries are close allied on many global issues including Syria, North Korea and Iran.    

In this perspective, the Russian-Chinese closer relationship is not just about economic and business cooperation, it is also a reaction tho the attemp by Washington to weaken both China and Russia as geopolitical competitors. From 11 to 17 September 2018 we saw the biggest military exercise between China, Russia and Mongolia througout the Siberian plateau and Russia's Far East.

It seems that new economic centers have emerged and the balance of power has been shifting: since 2001 Russia and China have been leading a security economic and political alliance, the Shangai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which has eight member States and represents 40 % of global population (20 % of global GDP).  

Obviously, the functions of the International Financial Organization and the role of the US Dollar may be changed. The EU has already put in place a new special payment system to help facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran. And with regards to Iran, the two Eurasian superpowers have just expressed concern in strong statements over a military confrontation in the perilous strait of Hormuz. Russia and China disagree with US's practice of extreme and provocative pressure  on Iran. Their ultimate goal is to push the US out of the Asian and Indo-Pacific areas.