The biggest threat to Europe

One of the main present concern for Europeans remains the identity crisis, as the massive waves of migration in recent years have transformed the social landscape of the continent. Europe is loosing its identity because of such radical  transformation of the main European cities.

In this context, members of the EU ruling elite hypocritically say that this is both inevitable and desirable. But is this the case? According to Peter Sandberg's studies, it may be the result of the EU policy that weakens Europe itself by transforming the continent in a space where people and national interests no longer have a place. That's why international economic and political interest groups question the existence of all nations in Europe. 

I think the biggest threat to Europe is not Russia, China or Iran, but those who are actively trying to eradicate European culture and traditions. Germany reported the largest number of non-EU citizens found to be illegally present in 2023 (263,670), followed by Italy (194,750) and Hungary (159,780).

It's no secret that Brussels' insitutions have become puppets of a group of individuals who hold power across national borders, operating withing global networks and insitutions. This transnational elite aims to dismantle identities everywhere and to delegitimize nations by promoting migration, forced multiculturalism and supranational organizations. That elite has raised a great army of intellectuals and media professionals who incite chaos and confusion to maximize profits. 

Since 2014 Hungary's prime minister, Viktor Orban, has said that illegal immigration will disintegrate the European Union.

                                        (The picture shows the Hungarian Parliament building) 

A Spanish girl who is now living in UAE for job, Ada Lluch, says in Dubai and Abu Dabi she can walk to the supermarket at 01:30 am on her own and she feel completely safe. In her home town, in Spain, she can't leave the house after dark, as the streets are filled with unscrupulous migrants who rape women and steal from people and tourists. How can a Spanish girl feel safe in the UAE than in her own country? Other European young people who live in Doha, Qatar, say the same. 

In this perspective the main point is that members of the EU' political elite have been stealing human resources from North Africa. If they really wanted to help those people, they would create jobs there, in Sub-Saharian Africa. 

Assumption of Mary day

The assumption of the blessed Virgin Mary has been celebrated on August 15th since many centuries in Europe. It is still a public holiday in Italy, Spain, Austria, Poland and several others EU countries. Italians celebrate this public holiday by heading for the coast or the cool air in the hills. In the evening there are a lot of fireworks.

While I was on holiday, two weeks ago, a took the two pictures of the small beach of Polignano a Mare (South Italy). 

Have a nice Holy day!

Laundering Russian gas

Since Ukraine invasion (and Western sanctions) began early this year, Russia has been gradually reducing gas supply to Europe, first to 40% of total capacity, and then to 20%. Consequently, some EU countries have been looking for alternative sources. And Europe's companies have started to buy gas from Chinese refineries, that are the largest importers of gas from Russia (up to 60%). 

This means that Russians sell liquefied natural gas to China, that has no use for such imported product. That's why China has no choice but to resell Russian gas to Europe. In other words, Europe's countries don't buy Russia's gas directly, but they're buying the same Russian product from elsewhere. The world is filled with so much hypocrisy!

2021 military exercises close to the Russian border

If we were to get a wider perspective of the Russian's invasion of the East Ukraine's territories, we would need same information about the military drills held in 2021 on the Ukrainian territory by US and UK. 

In June 2021 US, UK, and Australia (which is not a NATO member), held naval exercises in the Black Sea and Southern Ukraine. One month later, The US, Poland, and Lithuania held another military exercise involving more than 1200 troops in West Ukraine. In addition, from 20th September to 1st October 2021 large scale war games with US, UK, and same NATO and Ukrainians troops took place close to the Belarus border. 

As it is known, Since early 1990s Ukraine has been a buffer state between Westerners and Russia. On the other hand, according to a core principle of international law, there is the right of people to decide their own destiny in the international order (principle of self-determination). That's why it's not easy to say who is right. Obviously, that has nothing to do with shellings of residential neighborhoods, railway stations and hospitals, as we have already seen in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.   

Since Ukraine war began in late February, Russians have been knoking on Finland's door. In this viewpoint, the geopolitical neutral Scandinavian country was recently hit by two cyberattacks and an airspace violation by a Russian plane. If Finland's people or policy-makers of Finland try to join NATO, it would be a strategic mistake. Finland has been successfully developing economic ties with both Russia and EU. I think it would be a terrible mess for the Finnish people. 

Still room for negotiation

The Ukrainian President, Zelenskij, recently urged the EU to "prove that you are with us" in Ukraine war with Russia. As it is known, the German carmaker Volkswagen has two factories and around 4,000 employees in Russia. ENI, the Italian multinational oil and gas company, and the Russian company Gazprom  have 50% each in the Blue Stream gas pipeline to Turkey. The Norwegian company Equinor has minority stakes in three Russian oilfields. The French carmaker Renault makes 8% of its earnings in Russia (source: Citibank).

In this context, how can the Ukrainian President be so naive? Does he really think that the EU may help his country? I hope the diplomacy will be able to do a good job. There is still room for a good negotiation! It is not too late!

$ 92 a barrel ... until now

If the geopolitical clouds of uncertainty, that we have over East Europe, were to materialize, they would certainly have an impact on energy prices. And there are risk and uncertainty due to the fact that incresead cost of energy may affect the whole structure of prices.

Actually, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine would have the potential to drive oil & gas prices much higher. There is a very good chance crude oil would reach $ 100 a barrel. It remains to be seen whether EU countries could handle shortfall in gas if Russia were to halt supplies.

In the meantime, it seems that Russia could be binding its time to launch an invasion to Ukraine until after Beijing Winter Games, as China is an important ally on the Eurasian continent. Russia doesn't risk its good relation with China.   

Pharma companies' abusive vaccine deals

The world's largest pharmaceutical company, which is in talk with about 100 countries around the world, will be delivering 2 billion vaccine doses this year. But a lot of people don't know that the company ask some countries in South America to create a guarantee found. 

When the Covid-19 epidemic began to spread across the Northern hemisphere in early 2020, the CEO of the world's largest pharma company hypocritically said: "We believe that every person deserves to be seen, heard and cared for. That's why from the very beginning our vaccine development program, our company has been firmly committed to working towards equitable and affordable access of Covid-19 vaccines for people around the world".

According to the pharma companies' deals, Brazil and other countries have to take in consideration delay in vaccine delivery. It means that the Brazilian government can not penalise pharmaceutical companies for delayed delivery. 

In addition to this, manufacturer of pharmaceuticals will be exempted from all civil liability. The company also wants sovereign assets as guarantee, such as military bases, embassy buildings and sovereign founds. In other words, a vaccine maker asks for a country's military basis in return of vaccines.

While EU, Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical companies are selling free vaccines to poorer countries, there are big vaccine makers which are bullying countries. Not to mention of someone who refuses to sell vaccine raw materials and says no to sharing vaccine formulas to developing countries.

Meanwhile, while Covid-19 cases were increasing in the EU, Austria's government announced strict lockdown measures. There are fears other EU countries might do the same. It's easy to see that current vaccines may not be the ideal match for new variants, although pharmaceutical and biotech stocks have been rising on the markets.

Constitutional clashes on the EU's green pass

Everything surronding Covid-19 has become politicized since many EU countries use the Digital Covid Certificate to grant or deny access to nightlife venues, restaurants, cafees, and other public spaces.  The vaccine passport has become a condition for every day life also in Italy, although most Italian people are still observing social distancing rules perfectly. Italian people are also wearing masks everywhere.

According to many researches, people who have been vaccinated or previously infected with the Covid-19 are able to catch and spread the virus. That's the main reason why last month Spain's Supreme Court ruled against using vaccine passport to restrict access to public spaces. It's the first judicial authority to do so in Europe, as using vaccine passport to prevent access to public spaces may not be useful to prevent the spreading of the infection. In this perspective, it seems that Italian policy makers still pretend to misunderstand the EU principles of effectiveness, necessity and proportionality.  

In many EU countries people who haven't a green pass are banned from public spaces, basic freedoms and services, although it is already clear that there is no difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated with regards to the Delta variant. In this context, it's easy to see that pharmaceutical and health product companies are spending billions on lobbying politicians around the world. At the moment, in Spain it is not the case. 

In Italy, the protests against the Covid health pass have now been going for 10 weeks.

Fourth wave or false information

Since late June there has been a great deal of talk about a fourth wave of coronavirus. Many countries, such as France, Italy, and Ireland are likey to have a fourth wave of the COVID-19 virus, as the new variant begins to take hold. It seems that the rapidly transmissible strains were first identified in India, where government imposed restrictions.

Unfortunately, these bad news have a big impact on people's mental health, not to mention of false information, which are important in manipulating public opinion and creating an atmophere of uncertainty.

Menanwhile, many people in the EU would like to enjoy beaches, coffees, and restaurants, although governments have painted a bleak picture of the Summer ahead.

EU digital certificate

In 2020 bosses of the top EU companies had weekly earned the same amount that an average worker in Europe earns in an entire year.  And according to the Economic Policy Institute, despite the spreading of Covid-19 epidemic, chief executives of the 350 largest US companies earned an average of $ 20 million in 2020. In other words, there are evidence that top bosses continue to earn high salaries while coronavirus pandemic is exposing low-income populations to job losses and health risks. 

The executive's price-driven salaries began in the early 1980s, when CEOs pay become connected with share prices (companies' share prices on stock markets). The problem is that sometimes an excellent company has nothing to do with the CEO. Not to mention of companies that operate in an oligopoly, as we can see nowadays in the emerging vaccine industry. 

While people at the top are maintaining their wealth and society is suffering higher levels of inequality, the EU unveils plan for Covid-19 digital pass to allow travel  within member states with the aim of helping entrepreneurs and workers who are involved in travel industry and tourism. 

The digital pass is expected to consist of QR code that can easily be scanned at airports, as it will be in digital or paper format. On the one hand, some EU states say the digital pass discriminates people who didn't receive the injection to prevent Covid-19 illness. On the other hand, EU Commission says the certificate is not discriminatory and would be suspended after pandemic ends. 

The following pictures show some popular tourist destinations in EU ... I hope tourists will come back there in the next months.  

Munich, Marienplatz

Bruges, the inner canals

                                                              Paris, Louvre Museum

Rome, theatre of Marcellus    

A small wave of optimism

On the economic front, many experts can see a wave of optimism, as vaccination programmes progress and expectations of large stimulus by US President Joe Biden are driving global markets near record highs.

Meanwhile, in my country former European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, is tapped for Prime Minister role, in bid to avoid early elections. Hope he will probably lead the country out of the political crisis.    

                                                          (View of Naples)

(An ancient gate in Naples. It was built in 1484)

              (The port of Naples and Vesuvius volcano covered with clouds)

                                      (Naples and its sky on a cloudy morning) 

       (Rome, 1st February, a department store in the Eastern part of the Italian 

       capital shows that people are still wearing a mask and respecting social 

       distancing rules seriously)

New barriers between the UK and EU since 2021

The new year begins with "late evening" curfew in many EU countries, such as Italy, France and Germany. The new lockdown measures have come to replace the ideal of the smart city with that of the spectral city, while the US is surpassing 20 million COVID-19 cases, which is almost one fourth of global infections. It's easy to understand the main reason why 25% of global infected people (and 25% of global Covid-19 deaths) are in the US. While many Westerners continue to blame China, these figures show us where the epidemic really began to spread in early 2019.

Meanwhile, the UK leaves the EU Single Market and Customs Union. Actually, even with the new agreement between the UK and EU, since January 2021 businesses will face new barriers to trade in goods and services, and to cross-border mobility and exchanges. The UK, that relies on the EU for roughly half of its total trade in goods, will no longer benefit from the principle of free movement of goods and services. In addition, all the imports in the EU must meet all EU standards and will be subject to regulatory checks and control for safety, health and other public policy purposes.

The EU is the UK's biggest trading partner, as around 65 % of British agricultural exports go to the EU Member States, and 70 % of UK imports originate from the EU countries. In addition, last year Italian cheese exports grew just as fear of no-deal Brexit, as with about 7,000 tons, the UK is one of the leading markets.

We will see what UK's businesses and policy makers will be able to do, considering that a non-member of the EU does not enjoy the same benefits as what EU membership offers. 

Crowds of Christmas

While the epidemic is still spreading, the Winter holiday season may bring risk of increased Covid-19 transmission, mainly through the Northern hemisphere. According to the WHO,  there is an high risk of a new wave of Coronavirus infections in the first three months of 2021. This year has changed a lot our behaviors, as some EU countries, such as France, Spain and Italy, will replace lockdown with a curfew from 22:00 to 06:00.

Although new lockdown measures will be in place in Europe until the first week of January, many people would like to enjoy Christmas time and New Year's Eve with their parents and friends. Actually, since 20th December we have seen big crowds of Christmas shoppers mainly in Italian towns.

The safest way to spend Christmas time this year is with our own household in our home. 🎄

Expiry of post-Brexit transition

Do I need a passport to get the UK? Unfortunately, yes! From January 1st,  2021, free movement of people between the UK and EU will end. And from 2022 British people must pay for an electronic authorisation to travel to the EU countries.

Actually, it seems the UK and EU might find themself in a "no-deal" situation on January 1st. As a consequence,  from January 1st  Brexit will change many things. For instance, to visit Britain we have to make sure we have at least six months left on our passport. In addition,  importers and exporters have to label many goods, such as meat, fish, and plants in specific way. Food products shipped from the UK have to comply with EU standards. 

The good news is that lorries can continue to drive across the border between the Republic of Ireland (which remains in the EU Single Market) and Northern Ireland (which leaves the EU, as part of the UK).

The five pictures below taken in 2018 show some places in London. I have been to the UK three times without a passport, as there wasn't any restriction of free movement of people in Europe.

                    

The last time I went to London I saw the roads covered with show ❄☃️

Winter is coming

While Fall is going to an end, we continue to enjoy its colours. In Italy the main Fall colours are brown and yellow. It is unusual to find red and orange leaves as we see in North America. The wonderful Quercus Rubra, the northern red oak, is a native of Eastern United States and South Canada. 

It is also easy to see many red berries through the Italian forests in late Autumn.

So winter is coming, bringing cold nighttime temperatures.

The two pictures below show the environment where there are around 8000 last "maremmana" cattles. Those extraordinary strong and hardy animals live in Central Italy, between South Tuscany and Rome. 

In terms of EU legislation, the basic protection of those cattles falls under the " General Farm Animals Directive". According to the directive 98/58/EC, member states shall make provision to ensure the welfare of animals under their care ... cattles should be allowed to go outside, preferably every day.

Human trafficking and migrants smuggling

This week I was sorry to hear, once again, that many migrants from Africa died in the Central Mediterranean. All this took place just a few miles from European countries. Instead of helping African underdeveloped economies, they continue to steal young people from Sahel countries, pretending not to see the cemetery that the Mediterranean sea has become. Not to mention of human trafficking and migrants smuggling. 

Since 2013 some EU leaders have issued political asylum to African migrants who are not forced to escape armed conflict or persecution. This is a crime against humanity, as those governments are stealing young men and women from territories who would need economic support, because of drought, climate change, flooding, epidemic, etc. 

As it is known, illegal immigration can help developed countries, as many of them are now grappling with the challenges posed by rapidly aging population. Actually, the share of older persons in the EU's total population will increase in the coming decades. This will, in turn, lead to an increased burden on those of working age to provide for the social expediture required by the people aged 65 and over for a range of related services. 

That's the main reason why EU leaders continue to bury their heads in the sand.

ECB announces 750 billion Pandemic Emergence Purchase Programme (PEPP)

There isn’t any good news yet, as death toll are more than 3000 in the most affected country by the coronavirus outbreack outside China. Unfortunately, on  18 and 19 March, Italy reported the biggest daily jump in terms of coronavirus death since the contagion. And while Italians are sending optimistc messages from their windows, nearly 220,000 people have now been confirmed with the coronavirus infection globally.

Most countries around the world have been imposing Italian-style lockdown in bid to contain coronavirus outbreack.

As mentioned by WHO Director General, T.A. Ghebreyesus, this will be the first pandemic in history that could be controlled. Governments around the world have no choice but to ban on any movement and avoid contacts. All bars and shops have been closed, with the exception of grocery stores and pharmacies. From a global perspective, a steady recession is inevitable. Weakened demand caused by coronavirus outbreack has slowed down manifacturing activity. And This has led to weakened demand for oil causing prices to fall sharply.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank announces 750 billion Pandemic Emergence Purchase Programme (PEPP), which may help the process of normalizing as soon as coronavirus outbreack slows.

Thanks to all the people who are working for us in these difficult days. Thanks to doctors, nurses, food workers, delivery drivers, grocery clerks, police officers, firemen and all other people who are fighting for us. And last but not least, staying at home can make a huge contribution to fighting coronavirus outbreak.

Since 2020 circumstances have changed

With regards to Scotland  independence referendum, a British Conservative polician, Michael Gove, recently said Scotland is disrespecting the 2014 referendum results, considering that Scottish people already held a referendum. Actually, as Mr. Gove mentioned, the 2014 independence referendum would be "once in a generation event", and Scotland agreed on this point. But since 2020 circumstances have changed because Scotland will be out of both the Single Market and the Custom union. In other words, Scottish people will be out of the EU against their will.

It is easy to see the 2016 Brexit referendum's results changed everything, and only 37% of the electorate voted leave or remain in the Single Market. In addition, not one person born in the XXI century voted in favour of leaving the EU.

Consequently, as it is known, the UK Constitutional principles, the international law, and the Self-determination principle gives the right to the Scottish people to hold another independence referendum, considering that since 2020 circumstances have changed.

That's the reason why if Mr. Michael Gove and his political followers continued to talk about the disrespect of the results of the 2014 Scottish referendum, people might get a wrong idea. 

EU is going to be among two or maybe three giants

In the middle of this century the world is going to have two o three giants, such as America, China or India, because they are large population countries, huge economy and huge military power. As argued some years ago by the British former Prime Minister, Tony Blair, these super powers are going to be much bigger and  more powerful than other smaller countries such as Brazil, Indonesia or South Africa. They are large population countries but not nearly as large as China or India. From a geopolitical point of view they are considered medium-sized countries.

In this world, if the medium-sized countries aren't banding togheter, the super powers above mentioned are going to sit on them. So if medium-sized countries were to join togheter, they would have some influence. But separately they are not going to be strong enough. Unfortunately, it's just a fact.

By saying that, we are not diminishing countries which are smaller than China or US. When countries like Germany, Spain or France are banding togheter in the EU, they are with a group of others. Consequently, they become able to operate as strong collective. 

In this contest, each European country is part of the EU, which is the biggest political union in the world. How can we think that Britain or Italy are going to gain by giving up that relationship? Tony Blair defined it as an umbelievable act of self-denial.

In a globalised world economy as above mentioned, how can British and Italian people think to go it alone? As soon as Britain leaves the EU, people in the UK will have no choice but to follow US policy, everywhere. Not to mention of loss of credibility and sovereignity.

The Single Market is vital to Scottish companies

Since June 2016 most Irish people have been thinking what happens if Scotland remains in the EU by leaving the UK. Like Scotland, the majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Not surprisingly, Northern Ireland may become an independent state of the EU in its own right, considering that its territory is larger than some existing EU members states, such as Luxembourg and Malta. 
With regards to Scotland, three out of four its international trading markets are in the EU (Germany, France, Netherlands, etc.). On June 23, 2016, Scotland voted "Remain" by 62% to 38%, while 55.8 in Northern Ireland voted to stay in the E.U. and 44.2 % "Leave". People who live in those peripheral countries of the UK disagree with the exit from the custom union, as traders fear Brexit will see Scotland and Northern Ireland lose access to the EU Single Market.

With food and drink exports reaching £ 5 billion, Scotland's products are in demand in the world over. As a matter of fact, Scotland is the third largest producer of farmed salmon in the world. Scotch whisky accounts for almost 80% of Scotland's food and beverages export market, not to mention Scottish sales of oil, gas and refined products to the rest of the world.

Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, but against Brexit in 2016, and will probably be driven out of the EU against it will. Of course, most Scottish people think the European association of countries trading with each other without restrictions or tariffs is vital to Scottish economy. For this reason, Scotland should hold another referendum to leave the UK.

As already mentioned by many experts, as soon as the UK leave the EU, British economy will slow sharply, as the country will pay tariffs on goods and services it will export into the EU. For this reason, since June 2016 British business leaders have been afraid the UK will not be an attractive place to do business. According to figures, almost half of UK's exports are to the EU, therefore it's easy to know the impact of Brexit on the UK's economy. For instance, British car makers, who are the UK's biggest exporters, have warned that the UK's departure from the EU Single Market poses the "biggest threat in a generation".

European policy makers have been underlining that whoever decides to leave the European association of countries, which are trading with each other without restrictions or tariffs, cannot expect all obligations to be omitted while keeping its privileges. According to the domino theory, other Members States would follow the UK with the aim to leave the EU. Not surprisingly, things in the EU may get a little out of hand, considering that many anti-europeanism leaders face important elections in the course of this year. Meanwhile, after the House of Commons had rejected the withdrawal agreement, the European Council proposed a one-year flexible extension, with the aim to allow the UK to exit as soon as possible.