Direct participants in Israel war crimes

With regards to the ongoing massacre carried out by Israel, I think it is not a coincidence the fact that since October 7th, 2023, at least 227 journalists have been killed in the Palestinian territories of Gaza and West Bank. Israel's war on Gaza is the deadliest conflict for media workers ever recorded. And it is not a coincidence that Israel's stock market has broken record this year amid raging multifront wars, outperforming the world mayor stock markets. As recently mentioned by the United Nations special rapporteur, Francesca Albanese, Tel Aviv's stock exchange has increased by 179 % "since the war in Gaza began" in October 2023. She also specified that Israel has set up an economy of genocide and ethnic cleansing. 

Obviously our media system doesn't spread these news. 

              

In addition, leaders of the so called civilized world are not neutral observers to the genocide in Gaza. They are direct participants in Israel war crimes, providing them with the weapons, intelligence and diplomatic cover to carry out a systematic massacre of Palestinian women and children. Needless to point out that the US is the Israel military's biggest supplier. That's how would be dangerous an unipolar world, where one state holds a dominant position of power, potentially leading to instability and conflict.

In the meanwhile, the EU decided not to suspend its association agreement with Israel at the Foreign Affairs Council meeting on the 15th July, 2025. This means the EU gives Israel the green light for more genocide and ethnic cleansing. 

Regarding on the EU's position on the Russia-Ukraine war, we are witnessing the celebration of Brussels' hypocritical double standard. 

Effects of the trade war

 

Finally a beautiful and sunny spring Sunday! 

With regards to the ongoing trade war, yesterday I have heard that many EU and China politicians and economics experts warned about higher tariffs that will likely add to inflaction. Actually, I know that liquor and wine sold at restaurants, which are located in the United States, is mainly imported from Europe. This means that American restaurants' owners will not have enough margin of profit due to Trump's trade war. I also think many Amercan farmers will face the same problem because of rising price of ferlitizers, which are imported from Canada and Saudi Arabia and Qatar. 

In my humble opinion, retailers have to contact their customers about the impact of new tariffs. Not to mention of the sharp stock markets sell-off triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff rollout.

Happy Sunday everyone 🌼☀🌺

1st of April

 

On the 1st of April the weather is still cloudy here in Italy. I hope those clouds don't simbolize the uncertainty related to Trump's global trade war. 

As mentioned by some US Republican Senators, a trade war may provoke retaliation by major trading partners, such as China, EU and Canada. In the meanwhile, stock markets brace amid trade war fears. 

Have a nice month of April ☀

Stability into China-US relations

Since the US government took office, more than a month ago, International public opinion has been believing that Washington-Beijing communication has lost momentum. At the moment many signals show the ambivalence in Washington about China-US relation. On the one hand, the US continue to spread the “China threat” rhetoric. On the other hand, the relevant information just proves the importance of stable Washington-Beijing economic and trade relations to the United States.

The US administration knows that the tariff war would not bring tangible benefit to American consumers. Not to mention of the effect  related to the stock market, as it is no coincidence that since late January S&P 500 index has decreased by 3%. According to data, during the previous trade war launched by the US in 2018, most of Washington’s costs from tariffs on China hit American businesses and concumers.

The importance of maintaining stability between Washington and Beijing is related to the fact that trade war and tariff war have no winners. That’s an undeniable fact, as injecting new vitality into China-US relations would contribute to global stability. 

Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek

There are clouds of uncertainty over financial markets this week, as new China-based AI start-up, DeepSeek, has been showing its rapid innovation. It seems that DeepSeek can operate at a lower cost than American AI models.

On monday stocks of high-powered chip manufacturers, Nvidia and other American technology giants,  decreased due the fact that debates have been fueling over the economic and geopolitical competition between US and China in developing AI technology.

This means, in my humble opinion, that we are not yet in a unipolar world completely ruled by the 0.05% richer people.

Thoughts about war in East Europe

 

With regards to the ongoing war in East Europe I think that:

I have never heard that a president, and his wife, of an occupied country have    time to take glamorous photos for a fashion magazine while people and soldiers who live in their country are suffering.

I have never heard of celebrity supporters, such as Mila Kunis, Andrew Garfield and Sarah Jessica, who visit the president of a country engaged in a war against invaders. Since late February 2022 the stage in Kyiv has been set for them.

I have never heard of a president of an occupied country asking USA for no-fly zone, although a fifth grade boy would understand it is not possible.

And last but not least, Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine, mostly to Slovakia and Austria (1). In other words, since the war began, in late February 2022, invaders' gas has always been flowing through Ukraine. Not to mention of sanctions against Russia that have restricted oil and gas supply.  Consequently,  turmoil in energy markets leads to wind fall gains for U.S. multinational companies. 

According to figures, Exxonmobil made a record high profit of $ 56 Billion in 2022. And in 2022 Shell and Chevron had the biggest profit in their history (2). An interesting question may be: who is winning this war? Not Russia. Of course not Ukraine. The winners are United States' oil companies.

I hope I  haven't bored you by writing such inconsistencies about Ukraine-Russia war. 

Have a nice week!

(1) The picture above was taken some years ago by a friend of mine, Stefano, while he was travelling for job.

(2) https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/exxon-chevron-shell-profits-soar-oils-surge

Omicron

Just to say that yesterday, the 26th of November, while the news about the big concern (as mentioned by the WHO) of the South African variant and its multiple mutations was spreading across the world, the stocks of one of the biggest biotechnological company, Moderna Inc, were rising by more than 20% .

In this context, the Botswana government has just officialy said that the new COVID variant, named Omicron, was first detected in four patients who were fully vaccinated for COVID.

From the Nuremberg trial (1945) Hermann Goering to the question "How did you convince the German people to accept all this?", he replied: "It was easy and has nothing to do with Nazism. The only thing a government needs to turn people into slaves is fear. If you can find something to scare them, you can make them do anything you want".

Pharma companies' abusive vaccine deals

The world's largest pharmaceutical company, which is in talk with about 100 countries around the world, will be delivering 2 billion vaccine doses this year. But a lot of people don't know that the company ask some countries in South America to create a guarantee found. 

When the Covid-19 epidemic began to spread across the Northern hemisphere in early 2020, the CEO of the world's largest pharma company hypocritically said: "We believe that every person deserves to be seen, heard and cared for. That's why from the very beginning our vaccine development program, our company has been firmly committed to working towards equitable and affordable access of Covid-19 vaccines for people around the world".

According to the pharma companies' deals, Brazil and other countries have to take in consideration delay in vaccine delivery. It means that the Brazilian government can not penalise pharmaceutical companies for delayed delivery. 

In addition to this, manufacturer of pharmaceuticals will be exempted from all civil liability. The company also wants sovereign assets as guarantee, such as military bases, embassy buildings and sovereign founds. In other words, a vaccine maker asks for a country's military basis in return of vaccines.

While EU, Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical companies are selling free vaccines to poorer countries, there are big vaccine makers which are bullying countries. Not to mention of someone who refuses to sell vaccine raw materials and says no to sharing vaccine formulas to developing countries.

Meanwhile, while Covid-19 cases were increasing in the EU, Austria's government announced strict lockdown measures. There are fears other EU countries might do the same. It's easy to see that current vaccines may not be the ideal match for new variants, although pharmaceutical and biotech stocks have been rising on the markets.

EU digital certificate

In 2020 bosses of the top EU companies had weekly earned the same amount that an average worker in Europe earns in an entire year.  And according to the Economic Policy Institute, despite the spreading of Covid-19 epidemic, chief executives of the 350 largest US companies earned an average of $ 20 million in 2020. In other words, there are evidence that top bosses continue to earn high salaries while coronavirus pandemic is exposing low-income populations to job losses and health risks. 

The executive's price-driven salaries began in the early 1980s, when CEOs pay become connected with share prices (companies' share prices on stock markets). The problem is that sometimes an excellent company has nothing to do with the CEO. Not to mention of companies that operate in an oligopoly, as we can see nowadays in the emerging vaccine industry. 

While people at the top are maintaining their wealth and society is suffering higher levels of inequality, the EU unveils plan for Covid-19 digital pass to allow travel  within member states with the aim of helping entrepreneurs and workers who are involved in travel industry and tourism. 

The digital pass is expected to consist of QR code that can easily be scanned at airports, as it will be in digital or paper format. On the one hand, some EU states say the digital pass discriminates people who didn't receive the injection to prevent Covid-19 illness. On the other hand, EU Commission says the certificate is not discriminatory and would be suspended after pandemic ends. 

The following pictures show some popular tourist destinations in EU ... I hope tourists will come back there in the next months.  

Munich, Marienplatz

Bruges, the inner canals

                                                              Paris, Louvre Museum

Rome, theatre of Marcellus    

The more epidemic spreads, the more people need unemployment benefits

We all want to be rid of the coronavirus, of course, although EU's media are still talking about a third wave. Furthermore, another partial lockdown may continue to destroy small businesses, such as restaurants, cafés, clothes retailers, and other small businesses, while Wall Street’s analysts are still busy finding the stocks that are primed for gains in the next 12 months. As a matter of fact, since April 2020 we have already seen a sharply rise of some companies listed on the stock market, such as of pharmaceutical, electrical car makers, and biotech. 

In this cloudy perspective, there is a great talk about rising tax with the aim of increasing public services and unemployment benefits, considering that since March 2020 many people have been loosing their job. Some countries in Northern Europe, such as Sweden, Iceland, and Denmark, are known as having a high standard of living and social security, which their taxes help to pay for. Those countries  have a progressive tax system, meaning that people with a higher income pay a higher percentage of taxes than people with a lower income. Therefore, a large proportion of tax money goes into education, health care, parental support, unemployment benefits, etc.   

The good thing is that people who live in those countries don't even think about how much taxes they pay, because they say their tax system works very well. Clearly, those resources are going to be used by everyone in the population. On the contrary, cut taxes measures could have an impact on the society, as most people trust the public sector is able to do good things with their money. 

The four pictures below were taken in 2019 by a friend of mine, Stefano, who went in Sweden for job.

 

US-China trade war will not show a winner

Since May 2018 every social, economic, and political institution, at global level, has been under threat as a consequence of the US biggest protectionist approach. America has imposed $ 34 Billion worth of tariffs on steel and aluminium, and China has responded with its own tariffs on some US goods, including soybeans, chemicals, cars, and medical equipments. That's why there is uncertainty in the US stock market, as investors are moving to haven assets such as bond and gold.

Last week some UE politicians talked about a trade war and potential collapse of the world trade system. Actually the protectionist approach to the US economy will not be related to economic benefits. Americans may protect some jobs, but they will lose for more jobs in the medium term. 

In the long run the US will lose jobs, will lose investments, and will lose its economic power, because over the last three decades America has benefited from trade from East Asia. As above mentioned, on the one hand, China is also taking action and will soon establish commensurate measures, considering that US policies have been used to achieve protectionist goals. On the other hand, China president, Xi Jinping, recently said his country will continue to import EU goods and foreign investments.

It seems that this trade war between the US and China will not show a winner.  

UK's withdrawal process

From 30 March 2019 onwards, the UK will not be a Member State of the European Union. As it is known, more than one year ago the UK notified the European Council of its intention to withdrawal from the European Union, and only a mutual agreement between the EU and UK authorities can change this date.

Since 1957 twenty-two European countries have joined the founding six Members States (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxembourg) to become Members States of the European Union. The international organization of European countries was formed after World War II to reduce barriers and increase cooperation among its Member States. Unfortunately, the United Kingdom is the sole Member State ever to withdraw from the Union. After the UK's government had triggered the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, most Member States of the EU said that Britain would likely try to retain all the benefits of European Union membership without obbligation.

As a consequence, the withdrawal process is unique and unprecedented. The prospect of Britain's withdrawal with no deal shows the impact on future trade relations. That's why most investors are still very cautious concerning their exposure to the British equity market. Actually, it is not clear the final deal that will be negotiated between the UK and the European Union.

In the meanwhile, some British politicians have suggested that Parliament should consider holding a second referendum. According to a survey made by www.bbc.com, "The outcome of any second ballot could well depend on who does and who does not vote", considering that 28% didn't vote in 2016 Brexit referendum.  
As mentioned this week by Gabriela Baczynska, from http://uk.investing.com, there are still too many questions and few answers in talks between the E.U and Britain over the country withdrawal from the international organization of European countries.

Cryptocurrencies' free fall

Since the start of 2018 Bitcoin has lost more than 60% of its value, and other cryptocurrencies have done almost the same during last the five weeks. Meanwhile, some Governments in East Asia, such as China and South Korea, have introduced tougher regulation, and India's policy makers want to ban all use of  cryptocurrencies. With regard to the latter announcement, Bitcoin fell by 12.7 % on Friday, 2nd February. 

We mainly know that Bitcoins is a particular implementation of the blockchain technology, the world's leading software for digital assets, which allows market participants to keep track of digital currency transactions without central record keeping. Each computer connected to the network is considered a node that gets a copy of the blockchain, which is downloaded automatically. Consequently, Blockchain's participants can transfer funds and setting trades without the need for a central authority. The network of nodes validates the user's status and the transaction using known algorithms, and combine the latter with other transactions to create a new block of data, which will be added to the existing blockchain.The major innovation is that the technology allows market participants to transfer assets through the internet without the need  for a centralized third party.
Within the context above mentioned, some experts are talking about similarities between cryptocurrencies and other coins. This is not correct, because when we are speaking about the Euro, the Yen or the Dollar, we are referring them to strong economies, efficient taxation systems and central banks, which allow them to create a particolar value. On the contrary, with regards to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies we have no idea who bake them, and who is behind the their value.

As mentioned by Matin Baccardax, from TheStreet.com, when we own a share of a public company, which is freely traded on a stock exchange, just we have a piece of paper which gives us a small portion of the profit going forward. Neverthless  when we own Bitcoin we don't have anything in terms of dividends or profit. Bitcoin's value only increases when more people participate, and when fewer people  participate the value decreases. This is a structure which create a great deal of risk.

From 10 to 20 December 2017 in the Middle East

During the second decade of December two main events affected the Middle East: the U.S President's decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and the Houthi rebels' ballistic missile targeting  the Saudi Arabia's Royal Palace in Riyadh. At the same time stock markets rose steadily! It's easy to understand how human rights abuses and violations of international law are strictly related to the increase of stock markets around the world. At first glance, it seems that the two facts contradict each other. But it isn't always the case.

 

Sale of weapons and stock markets booming

It seems that a lot of people, such as investors, individual traders, market experts and columnist have been waiting for a new periodic crisis of the markets. Actually, we could see a "rotation" in terms of money which may flow out from the stock markets. In particular,  technology stocks have been on a all time high for a long time, thanks to the sharp development of networks and nodes both related to the world's system on transactions.       

Unfortunately, there are also some geopolitical uncertainties in the Eastern emisphere which may affect the markets:   

• Saudi Arabia leadership accepts to partially normalise relation with Israel in exchange for an alliance against Iran.
• Rohinjy people are still brutally oppressed while the developed world holds its inaction in the face of genocide and example of ethnic cleasing.
• The EU has been cutting funds allocated to Turkey due to the deteriorating situation in terms of democracy, rule of law and human rights.
• U.S. President is considering recognising Jerusalem as capital of Israel, although 330,000 Palestinians, who make up 37 percent of the city's population, have been living there since Israel captured and annexed the Eastern Sector.
• Conflicts in Yemen and Syria haven't still gone to an end.
• Sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia, Myanmar and Iran has increased sharply since 2016.

It seems that there is a relationship between the rise of stock markets and the frenetic and uncontrolled sale of weapons and munitions in the Asian continent. 

In addition to this, China and Russia call on U.S. to reduce military exercises in East Asia Region of the World. In particular, Russia foreign minister have questioned U.S. tactics on East Asia, considering the U.S. secretary of state pushes diplomatic options on North Korea.

In this perspective, while secretary of State Tillerson was consistently calling for dialogue, Trump responded to North Korea missile tests with insults on Twitter ... He called Kim Jong "Little rocket man" and "Sick puppy".

 

"Alternative für deutschland" will be the third biggest party in Parliament

Just to say that after German people voted on Sunday, 24th September, the "Alternative für deutschland" party was set to enter the Bundestag for the first time. With its 80 seats, it will be the third biggest party in Parliament.

In 2013 an economics professor founded "Alternative für deutschland" party, which was soon known as eurosceptic and liberal. The new political group increased sharply since 2015 to 2016, after Ms Merkel had decided to let in more than one Million refugees.

Although it is said that the party may be considered in an extreme rightwing position, Germany's election results haven't been affecting European stock markets.

New Bundestag on 24th September

This year, on 24th September, Federal elections will be held in Germany in the aim to elect the new 598 members of the Bundestag. Consequently, the new German Parliament will have to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members.

According to most surveys, Mrs Merkel is likely to be re-elected, although the populist "Alternative for Germany" party looks set to enter the Bundestag for the first time.
As reported by uk.investing.com on 14th August, if she weren't to win the election, it would be the blackest of black swan". And it's easy to think how the market would be affected by the political shift.

Markets are always right

After President Trump had took place at the White House, he began to use social networks in the aim to create a negative impact on some companies listed on the stock markets. Unfortunately, he was able to affect the markets by leaving statements through twitter.

For instance, last year on 23rd December Lockeed Martin's stocks fell by 5 per cent  after the U.S. President had written a tweet about the cost of the F-35 jet program. And when President Trump wrote that  Obama's Air Force One 747 was too expensive, "Boeing Co" lost about two Billion of its capitalization on the stock market. As many of the Presidents before him, Obama had maden numerous comments about his affinity for  Air Force One.

On the contrary,  since this month investors haven't been taking seriously Trump's statements left on social networks. Last Wednesday, after the President had written bad news about Amazon.com, the stocks of the most valuable retailer in the U.S. surprisingly rose. it seems that Trump's tweets don't affect the markets any more.

As it is known, most investors, such as hedge fund money managers, are analyzing all the time world news. In this perspective, since U.S. President was elected in 2016 they have been thinking what Trump's tweets mean for the market. At the moment, Donald Trump's statements are not able to influence the markets, as we have seen with regard to invocation of "fire and fury" in response to North Korea's nuclear weapon program. It's easy to see how the markets ignore President Trump's statements. 

U.S. stock markets' Record highs

I still don't understand why the U.S. stock markets keep smashing records. The all-time high, which Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq have hit since Trump victory, may be related to President's promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Moreover, European economy has started to gather momentum.

From another point of view, with an unemployment rate of at 4%, low interest rates and steady economic growth, the U.S. stock markets managed record highs. Moreover, European Union has started to gather momentum, and reports about the second quarter 2017 may elicit solid number better than expected.

As a result, We may find that we don't really need to listen to all those  analysts  and columnists who like to explain why the markets did what they did during the last nine months. A former technical analyst for CNBC, John J. Murphy, reminds us that a lot of experts didn't see the housing bubble bursting in 2007 until it was too late. That's why it's better looking at the markets instead of listening to the experts. All that really matters is what the markets are actually doing.   

A little air is coming out of the balloon

It seems that since 9th June a lot of people, such as investors, individual traders, market experts and columnists have been waiting for a new periodic crisis of the markets. As we saw in the first decade of last month, after major Wall Street indexes had touched new highs, the money began to flow out from the U.S. Stock Markets. Somebody said "a little air is coming out of the balloon".

For instance, U.S. chipmakers are aware that technology stocks have been on a all time high for a very long time. Actually, we could see "a rotation" as money may go out of  Stock Markets into other sectors.