Since 2020 circumstances have changed

With regards to Scotland  independence referendum, a British Conservative polician, Michael Gove, recently said Scotland is disrespecting the 2014 referendum results, considering that Scottish people already held a referendum. Actually, as Mr. Gove mentioned, the 2014 independence referendum would be "once in a generation event", and Scotland agreed on this point. But since 2020 circumstances have changed because Scotland will be out of both the Single Market and the Custom union. In other words, Scottish people will be out of the EU against their will.

It is easy to see the 2016 Brexit referendum's results changed everything, and only 37% of the electorate voted leave or remain in the Single Market. In addition, not one person born in the XXI century voted in favour of leaving the EU.

Consequently, as it is known, the UK Constitutional principles, the international law, and the Self-determination principle gives the right to the Scottish people to hold another independence referendum, considering that since 2020 circumstances have changed.

That's the reason why if Mr. Michael Gove and his political followers continued to talk about the disrespect of the results of the 2014 Scottish referendum, people might get a wrong idea. 

The World cannot afford another war

It has been an unsettling first few days of a new decade from a geopolitical point of view, as the Iranian Revolution Guard commander, Qassem Solemaini, died in a US air strike on Friday, 3rd  January. Actually, tensions escalated after an Iranian-backed group  killed a US contractor on the Iraqi territory one week ago.

While the US President was trying to justify the killing, Iran promised retaliations and warned serious consequences. That's the reason why the US Democratic Senate leader, Chuck Schumer, said this action may trigger another endless war, exactly the kind of endless war that the President promised he would avoid.

At the moment the Middle East is home of more than 50,000 US soldiers, most located in Qatar. According to some experts, the Trump Administration do not understand that Iranian armed forces are not the same as we saw in the late 1970s during the Iran-Iraq war. In addition, Teheran could be able to trigger a war outside the Middle East Region, considering its good relationship with other powers located on the Asian Continent.

As mentioned by the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, the world cannot afford to have another war in the Middle East Region, considering that there are already  battlegroungs  in Syria, Libya, and Yemen.

It seems that the Trump Administration is going to make the same mistake that both President Bush and President Obana made before him. After the US had destroyed the two leaders in Iraq and Libya, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, they lost huge human resources and destabilized the two Islamic countries. 

Italy is compelled to generate 23 Billion by increasing taxes

This week Italy's Interior Minister, Mr. Salvini, is calling for early elections, while other parties are afraid of going to go to elections and loosing influence. From a political point of view, it is not time for elections in Italy, as the country needs to do an agreement with the EU and rebuild its political agenda. But it is also true that if a new government is not formed, Italian Parliament will be likely dissolved.  

The mainly problem of this political crisis is that many companies and strong economic powers, which have always backed Mr. Salvini from North-East Italy, now claim to be better heard from the government. Salvini's economic idea  is for growth of national product and measures which should encourage enterprises' productivity. But this couldn't be done without solving the problem at the moment of Italy's public debt, which is double than Germany and one fourth higher than France. Italy travels around 132% in terms of public debt/GDP ratio, and Salvini said this is not a problem. 

Salvini is the typical strong man that far right movements would like to see in power. Unfortunately, he is backed by economic powers which are interested in Federalism and Flat tax, and the Italian Prime Minister, Mr. Conte disagrees with these two points just mentioned. Flat tax means more money to the 10% richer and less money to the public budget. Consequently, Italian people would get less public services, such as healthcare, education, public transport, ect.  

Meanwhile, in order to comply with EU's deficit rules, Italy has vowed to the European Commission that it will be generating € 23 Billion by increasing sales taxes from the start of next year. There are no doubts that Italy needs a new stable government with the aim of helping to raise economic growth rate, create more jobs, and decrease public debt.

Protecting business with Iran

Since the US began to increase pressure on Iran, we have heard that the Rouhani regime has been passing  3.67% uranium stockpile limit permitted by 2015 nuclear deal. It is a very low level, which proves that Iran is not working on a nuclear weapon.

In this context, while the US is still imposing severe sanctions against Teheran, the Europeans should allow their companies to make business with Iran. Companies that want to import oil from Iran they have to be protected from the US.

According to international law, America can't interfere in the internal Europeans affairs, telling them who they can trade with, and who they cannot trade with. In addition, some calculations show that European economy is larger than US economy, and the European population is larger than US population. Consequently,  the EU has leverage on the Americans.

Meanwhile, after British Royal Marines had seized an Iranian oil tanker near Gibraltar, Iranian boats tried to impede a British oil tanker near the perilous strait of Hormuz.

Although the tension in the region is rising by the day, the US, UK and Iran say they don't want to escalate conflict.

Sea-Watch 3

On July 3rd an Italian Judicial Court rejected the validation of Carola Rackete’s arrest, declaring she acted out of an obligation to save migrants. The judge disputed the crime resistance to public officials was justified “in a performance of a duty to save lives at sea”.

Consequently, since July 3rd vessels’ commanders of the NGO involved in human trafficking, who pretend to help people, may feel free of an obbligation while they will perform illegal migrants smuggling through the Italian territorial sea. So Europeans, who are interested in prostitution and illegal low wage employment in agricultural sector, can continue to steal human resources from the African continent. Actually, the Italian magistrates aren’t able to find evidence about the relationship between rescue vessels and people who exploit human trafficking. As it is known, on June 14 the NGO vessel “Sea-Watch 3” refused to take rescued migrants to the Libya’s capital, after it “had saved” migrants next to the Libyan territorial see. The Dutch rescue vessel asked for a port and obtained it in Tripoli. “Sea-Watch”  said Tripoli is not a safe port. 

While the Italian judge was stating that the German captain of the rescue charity ship had not broken the law, at least 44 migrants and refugees were killed by an air raid on a detention centre in the Eastern side of Tripoli.  Although there is no evidence yet, it seems there is a combination between the two events. Since July 3rd rescue vessels must not go back to Tripoli,  as it is no safe for migrants, because of the air raid. The military attack involving aircraft was conducted by Egypt and UAE, who delivered bombs purchased by France’s government on Tripoli's suburbs. Since 2011 France has been responsible of civil war in Libya, which caused illegal migrants smuggling and human trafficking. France's government decided to start a military operation against Libya, which  caused very serious damages, not to mention of humanitarian aspects. European people today is totally divided on the existing interests of France and Germany, as European politics has been too far from people and too close to finance and human trafficking. That's why people in the UK decided to leave the EU when they voted the 2016 Brexit referendum. Actually, there are criminals at global level who want to continue to steal human resources from the African continent.

To summarize, at the moment NGOs and smugglers may ship thousands of migrants towards Italy, under the pretext of rescuing, because Italian judge stated  “Sea-Watch 3” captain, Carola Rackete, didn’t break the law when she sailed through the Italian territorial sea and docked her migrants rescue vessel on the Island of Lampedusa without permission".

Still human trafficking

After the Dutch vessel "Sea-Watch" had been seized by Italian authorities, because of illegal immigration and human trafficking, its German commander, Carola Rackete,  was  defined as another communist with a lot of money.  Actually, Ms. Rackete, who is also a  veteran of a German NGO, is looking for the opportunity of being admired. She's looking for popularity. In addition, she is backed by criminals at a global level, people who are interested in business related to illegal immigration. 

If Ms. Rackete really wanted to help people, she would go to Africa. I know Italian volunteers who have been building orthopedic centers in Madagascar and sewage systems in Uganda. That's what some African countries need. We haven't to steel their human resources.  And those unscrupulous people who exploit any opportunity to steal human resources from Africa present them selves as communist, socialist or democrat.    

With the aim of trying to stop human trafficking through the Mediterranean sea, Italian Parliament recently adopted a decree pledging fines up to 50,000 Euros for captain and owner who take vessels in Italy without authorisation. The decree was criticised by the United Nations, which called sea rescue a "humanitarian imperative".

As we have seen, policy makers who want to stop human trafficking are defined as populists, and sometimes as fascists by the media establishment.  I hope people began to understand who are really fascists. it's time to understand who really are criminals in our country and in the EU.

Russian-Chinese cooperation

Since the US has begun its trade war on various fronts, including custom duties imposed by Trump's Administration, China and Russia have been trying to strenghten their ties. The leaders of two bigger Eurasian powers say their countries are closer than ever been.

Actually, Russia is considered by Beijing's Government as a source of energy, and Chinese activity in Russia's infrastructures project is on the rise. In addition, the two countries are close allied on many global issues including Syria, North Korea and Iran.    

In this perspective, the Russian-Chinese closer relationship is not just about economic and business cooperation, it is also a reaction tho the attemp by Washington to weaken both China and Russia as geopolitical competitors. From 11 to 17 September 2018 we saw the biggest military exercise between China, Russia and Mongolia througout the Siberian plateau and Russia's Far East.

It seems that new economic centers have emerged and the balance of power has been shifting: since 2001 Russia and China have been leading a security economic and political alliance, the Shangai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which has eight member States and represents 40 % of global population (20 % of global GDP).  

Obviously, the functions of the International Financial Organization and the role of the US Dollar may be changed. The EU has already put in place a new special payment system to help facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran. And with regards to Iran, the two Eurasian superpowers have just expressed concern in strong statements over a military confrontation in the perilous strait of Hormuz. Russia and China disagree with US's practice of extreme and provocative pressure  on Iran. Their ultimate goal is to push the US out of the Asian and Indo-Pacific areas.