Three Brexit scenarios

As it's  known, the UK is going to leave the  EU  on 29  March  2019, thanks to 52  percent  of  people  who  voted  in favour of leaving the common  market. And  if  the  UK  and  EU were not  to  reach  a  deal  before  March  2019, consumers and businesses  in England, Scotland, Wales  and Northern Ireland would have to pay more for goods and services.

In other words, a no-deal Brexit would be related to slower processing times for payments between the UK and EU, and custom duties would be paid for goods going to and coming from the European single market. 

At the moment most experts argue there are three possible scenarios:

1. If Mrs May's deal is rejected by the Parliament, the UK would be plunged into crisis.
2. The UK and EU could reach a good deal. In this case little would be likely to change when the UK leaves the EU.
3. According to opinion polls, British society remains deeply divided over Brexit. That's why a second referendum may be "on the table".

With regard to the third scenario above mentioned, we should consider that on 23 June 2016 about 12,000,000 registered voters didn't vote the EU Membership Referendum. We don't know how they would answer the following question: Should the United Kingdom leave the European Union ? And although in June 2016 Leave's margin of victory was 1,269,501 votes, Northern Ireland, Scotland and London voted to remain. 

Friendship treaty between Italy and Libya

In 2008 Italy and Libya signed a friendship treaty with the aim of seeking to turn page on 40 years of bad relationships between the two Mediterranean countries. According to the treaty, Libya would work to stop illegal migrants embarking from its shores. 

Unfortunately, as it is known, the deal was suspended in 2011 after the Libyan dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, was forced from power. And after  Muammar Qaddafi was killed in 2011, smugglers began to send thousands of migrants across the Mediterranean sea to the Italian shores.

Nowadays Italy and Libya are reactivating the friendship treaty signed ten years ago, as the co-operation between the two countries is essential to resolve the immigration emergency and avoid human tragedies.  

US-China trade war will not show a winner

Since May 2018 every social, economic, and political institution, at global level, has been under threat as a consequence of the US biggest protectionist approach. America has imposed $ 34 Billion worth of tariffs on steel and aluminium, and China has responded with its own tariffs on some US goods, including soybeans, chemicals, cars, and medical equipments. That's why there is uncertainty in the US stock market, as investors are moving to haven assets such as bond and gold.

Last week some UE politicians talked about a trade war and potential collapse of the world trade system. Actually the protectionist approach to the US economy will not be related to economic benefits. Americans may protect some jobs, but they will lose for more jobs in the medium term. 

In the long run the US will lose jobs, will lose investments, and will lose its economic power, because over the last three decades America has benefited from trade from East Asia. As above mentioned, on the one hand, China is also taking action and will soon establish commensurate measures, considering that US policies have been used to achieve protectionist goals. On the other hand, China president, Xi Jinping, recently said his country will continue to import EU goods and foreign investments.

It seems that this trade war between the US and China will not show a winner.  

UK's withdrawal process

From 30 March 2019 onwards, the UK will not be a Member State of the European Union. As it is known, more than one year ago the UK notified the European Council of its intention to withdrawal from the European Union, and only a mutual agreement between the EU and UK authorities can change this date.

Since 1957 twenty-two European countries have joined the founding six Members States (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, The Netherlands and Luxembourg) to become Members States of the European Union. The international organization of European countries was formed after World War II to reduce barriers and increase cooperation among its Member States. Unfortunately, the United Kingdom is the sole Member State ever to withdraw from the Union. After the UK's government had triggered the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, most Member States of the EU said that Britain would likely try to retain all the benefits of European Union membership without obbligation.

As a consequence, the withdrawal process is unique and unprecedented. The prospect of Britain's withdrawal with no deal shows the impact on future trade relations. That's why most investors are still very cautious concerning their exposure to the British equity market. Actually, it is not clear the final deal that will be negotiated between the UK and the European Union.

In the meanwhile, some British politicians have suggested that Parliament should consider holding a second referendum. According to a survey made by www.bbc.com, "The outcome of any second ballot could well depend on who does and who does not vote", considering that 28% didn't vote in 2016 Brexit referendum.  
As mentioned this week by Gabriela Baczynska, from http://uk.investing.com, there are still too many questions and few answers in talks between the E.U and Britain over the country withdrawal from the international organization of European countries.

Human trafficking through the Mediterranean sea

On Sunday 10 June, Italy's government decided to stop a rescue ship from docking an Italian port. Malta also refused permission for the vessel to dock.

At the moment the rescue vessel, Acquarius, is located next to Malta, and according to International law the ship should go there.

Following France and Austria, Italy also will start to push people back at the border. The key aim is to stop the business of illegal immigration and human trafficking ... it's easy to see why the previous Italian government didn't do the same.  

Illegal immigration will not exist anymore in the EU

During the next two months, some important legislative decrees will be issued by the new Italian Government. The first one is about restrictions on the right of entry and the right of residence.

According to the EU directive 2004/38/EC, each Member State has the right to made restrictions on the ground of public security or public  health. And the adoption of the necessary measures to stop Italy from being "Europe's refugee camp" can't be considered an infringement of the EU law.

A soon as the new Italian Government cuts funds for temporary settlements built to receive refugees, illegal and undocumented immigrants will not exist anymore. Italy will not be the country of first arrival for asylum-seekers.

In addition, most migrants, who arrive in Italy, come from Nigeria, Gambia or Eritrea, and they flee their countries because of civil war or political persecution. They usually try to reach Italian shores through other countries, such as Lybia and Tunisia. And migrants who reach those North African countries are not in trouble and don't need to get away. In other words, they are already granted immunity from political prosecution in Libya and Tunisia. The Italian Government  can't  consider them as  asylum-seekers.

I've heard of "Apartheid Israel"

Since Palestinians began to commemorate the "Nakba" along the Gaza Strip border this month, more than sixty Palestinians have been killed along the Gaza-Israel border, incuding an eight months girl. Some scholars have been arguing that Israel may be charged with genocide and crimes against umanity. They compare Israel treatment of Palestinians to South Africa's treatment of non-whites.   

In 1948 more than 700,000 Palestinians were forced from their homes and land when Israel declared itself a State. And today there are more than 5 Million Palestinian refugees worldwide, who are still demanding to return to their homes after seven decades.

Although the 2002 "Arab Peace Initiative" agreement stated that no settlement can be imposed on Palestinians people without their consent, communities of Jews are still moving to the West Bank, where there are 2,5 Million Palestinians. In addition, there are 1.6 Million Palestinians in Israel, who are marginalized, and 2 Million of Palestinians in Gaza Strip, which may be compared to the Warsaw Ghetto. 300,000 Palestinians are living in Jerusalem, that was officially recognised as capital of Israel on May 14 by the Trump Administration. This morning Paraguay opened its Israel embassy in Jerusalem. It's the second country to follow the United States. Unfortunately, I'm afraid we will see other followers.