Post-Brexit

It isn't easy to understand why some British Ministers are still so optimistic about Brexit. While the UK's Prime Minister triggers Article 50 later this month, the Irish republican party's leader says that "We must defend the democratic mandate of the people to remain in the EU". That's why Northern Ireland should hold a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland. In addition, as it is already known, a decision on calling a new Scottish independence referendum could be made within weeks: the first minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, recently said that plans to take the UK out of the EU's Single market have brought a second Scottish independence referendum "undoubtedly" closer.

Actually, it seems that the British Government is now on an unpleasantly difficult situation: on the one hand, Mrs. May says that British people would have truly left the EU when they would be in control of their own laws. On the other hand, she is still looking for the "Greatest possible access" to EU's Single market after leaving it.

According to an article published in "The Economist" on March 4th, 2017, The European Court of Justice will probably control any transitional arrangement which will be made between post-Brexit UK and EU. If the UK were to need trading relationships with the EU, it wouldn't be free from the shackles of the Luxembourg's Court of Justice. 

Since the 1960s European Court of Justice have been supervising any trade deal signed by the EU. And all non-EU countries that seek close access to the EU's Single Market, such as Switzerland, Iceland and Norway,  have been following the Luxembourg's rules. 

As a result, notwithstanding the country has voted to leave the EU, Britain will not reach the aim to take the UK out of the European Court of Justice. Moreover, Scotland and Northern Ireland will try to leave the UK, and refugees and immigrates will be probably allowed to remain in Britain. It isn't easy to understand why someone is optimistic about Brexit.

Scottish people are debating about the future of the UK

Last week I was in Edinburgh, the capital of Scotland, where I didn't see any flag of the UK. There were only flags with St. Andrew's cross everywhere. I could read Scottish newspapers and magazines, which reported politicians' points of view about the economic consequences of Brexit and Scotland independence.
A very meaningful heading at the top of a newspaper's page reported a piece of a Scottish politician's speech: "We have been under the heel of foreign influence and power for 300 years".
As it is known, in 1707 the Act of Union brought Scotland even closer to Britain by creating a single parliament. In 1999 the Scottish Parliament reconvened for the first time in nearly 300 years, ushering in a new era for the Scottish people. Scotland voted to stay in the UK in 2014, but against Brexit in 2016, and will probably be driven out of the EU against its will. As a result, Scottish people should hold another referendum in order lo leave the UK. 

In this perspective, the UK Prime Minister is proposing a free trade agreement for goods and services between Britain and EU Member States, which will give to British companies the maximum freedom  to trade with and operate in the European market.  With regard to Britain's imminent departure from the EU, Theresa May specifies that the agreement doesn't mean membership of single market, but she is seeking the greatest possible access to it through an ambitious free trade agreement.   

How could British companies get access to the single market while the UK is still ready to leave the EU? European decision makers will likely disagree with Mrs. May's free trade agreement, because it may be a dangerous starting point.
According to the domino theory, other Member States would follow the UK and would leave the EU. And, not surprisingly, things in the EU may get a little out of hand, considering that  many anti-europeanism leaders face important election in the course of this year.