Tuesday 26 September 2017

"Alternative für deutschland" will be the third biggest party in Parliament

Just to say that after German people voted on Sunday, 24th September, the "Alternative für deutschland" party was set to enter the Bundestag for the first time. With its 80 seats, it will be the third biggest party in Parliament.
In 2013 an economics professor founded "Alternative für deutschland" party, which was soon known as eurosceptic and liberal. The new political group increased sharply since 2015 to 2016, after Ms Merkel had decided to let in more than one Million refugees.
Although it is said that the party may be considered in an extreme rightwing position, Germany's election results haven't been affecting European stock markets.

Monday 18 September 2017

2017 Gulf countries' crisis

With regard to the ongoing crisis of Middle East countries, most international experts, diplomats and politicians are talking about mediation as a good process where disputing parties may resolve the conflict. What actually the word "mediation" means in this conflict?
As it is known, four Middle East countries have certain things against Qatar's policy, and three of them are members of the GCC political and economic alliance. Those countries say that Qatar doesn't respect the 2014 Agreement, and they would like a regime change in Qatar. In 2014 Qatar agreed to make a number of changes to its foreign policies, such as restricting Al Jazeera criticism of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other countries. Qatar also agreed to prevent Doha-based Muslim Brotherhod leaders from appearing on Al Jazeera network. Since Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt in 2012, conservative monarchies in the Middle East have been dedicating huge resources to prevent the spread of reformist ideologies. It's easy to see that those countries who want to close Al Jazeera and its comprehensive and impartial coverage of events around the world, would like to keep Middle East frozen, in a state of crude oil autocracy.

As above mentioned, this conflict may be resolved through dialogue between disputing parties and diplomatic intevention on the part of UN and perhaps other countries like Kwait. They have to sit down and talk in rational concrete realistic terms about what could be done. Qatar agrees about mediation, but Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain insist there will be no solution unless an Agreement on their thirteen demands. Those four countries, which have been severing ties with Qatar since 5th June, mainly have demanded to cut off ties with Iran and stop financing terrorist organizations. That's why  experts, diplomats and politicians are talking about mediation. 

Qatar is not only home of the largest US military base, it also hosts Turkish soldiers. The blockading countries have demanded  Qatar to expelling Turkish troops and shut down Al Jazeera. The Shiite Arab world, and some Middle East countries, such as Turkey, say that Gulf states are violating Qatar's sovereignity. 
In this perspective, the US are in a unconfortable position, considering that, on a one hand, Qatar hosts the largest US military base. On the other hand, the US has recently approved the sale to Saudi Arabia of up to 153 tanks, hundreds of machine guns and other military gear in a deal Worth 1.15 billion Dollar. That's why we have recently seen some changes in the US position: since the last meeting with Kwait's Emir, President Trump has begun to talk about the unity of Gulf countries. And once again we have heard the word "mediation", a process where a neutral third party, such as Kwait or the US, assists others to mediate dispute in the aim to encourage a more equal balance of power in the Middle East, between the Sunny Arab world and the community of Shiites.



Thursday 14 September 2017

New Bundestag on 24th September

This year, on 24th September, Federal elections will be held in Germany in the aim to elect the new 598 members of the Bundestag. Consequently, the new German Parliament will have to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members.
According to most surveys, Mrs Merkel is likely to be re-elected, although the populist "Alternative for Germany" party looks set to enter the Bundestag for the first time.
As reported by uk.investing.com on 14th August, if she weren't to win the election, it would be the blackest of black swan". And it's easy to think how the market would be affected by the political shift.


Sunday 10 September 2017

The only religion with a doctrine of warfare

In 2015 during a coordinated suicide bomb-attack 130 people were killed in Paris and St. Denis, and a suicide bombing in Belgium killed 32 civilians. On 14th July, 2016, 86 people were killed in Nice while they were celebrating Bastille day. And this year attackers in London, Manchester, Berlin and Barcelona killed 62 people.
 
Considering the amount of people  killed in Western countries by Islamist  extremists, we may argue that those bomb-Attacks can't be categorized as terrorism. The use of violence, which we have seen in the last three year in Paris, Brussels, Manchester, Barcelona, London and Berlin, isn't in order to achieve political aims or to force  the government to do something. It's really a war. According to Robert Spencer, "Islam is not  moderate or peaceful. It's the only religion with a doctrine  of warfare".