Markets are always right

After President Trump had took place at the White House, he began to use social networks in the aim to create a negative impact on some companies listed on the stock markets. Unfortunately, he was able to affect the markets by leaving statements through twitter.

For instance, last year on 23rd December Lockeed Martin's stocks fell by 5 per cent  after the U.S. President had written a tweet about the cost of the F-35 jet program. And when President Trump wrote that  Obama's Air Force One 747 was too expensive, "Boeing Co" lost about two Billion of its capitalization on the stock market. As many of the Presidents before him, Obama had maden numerous comments about his affinity for  Air Force One.

On the contrary,  since this month investors haven't been taking seriously Trump's statements left on social networks. Last Wednesday, after the President had written bad news about Amazon.com, the stocks of the most valuable retailer in the U.S. surprisingly rose. it seems that Trump's tweets don't affect the markets any more.

As it is known, most investors, such as hedge fund money managers, are analyzing all the time world news. In this perspective, since U.S. President was elected in 2016 they have been thinking what Trump's tweets mean for the market. At the moment, Donald Trump's statements are not able to influence the markets, as we have seen with regard to invocation of "fire and fury" in response to North Korea's nuclear weapon program. It's easy to see how the markets ignore President Trump's statements. 

U.S. stock markets' Record highs

I still don't understand why the U.S. stock markets keep smashing records. The all-time high, which Dow Jones, S & P 500 and Nasdaq have hit since Trump victory, may be related to President's promises of tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Moreover, European economy has started to gather momentum.

From another point of view, with an unemployment rate of at 4%, low interest rates and steady economic growth, the U.S. stock markets managed record highs. Moreover, European Union has started to gather momentum, and reports about the second quarter 2017 may elicit solid number better than expected.

As a result, We may find that we don't really need to listen to all those  analysts  and columnists who like to explain why the markets did what they did during the last nine months. A former technical analyst for CNBC, John J. Murphy, reminds us that a lot of experts didn't see the housing bubble bursting in 2007 until it was too late. That's why it's better looking at the markets instead of listening to the experts. All that really matters is what the markets are actually doing.   

A little air is coming out of the balloon

It seems that since 9th June a lot of people, such as investors, individual traders, market experts and columnists have been waiting for a new periodic crisis of the markets. As we saw in the first decade of last month, after major Wall Street indexes had touched new highs, the money began to flow out from the U.S. Stock Markets. Somebody said "a little air is coming out of the balloon".

For instance, U.S. chipmakers are aware that technology stocks have been on a all time high for a very long time. Actually, we could see "a rotation" as money may go out of  Stock Markets into other sectors.

Middle East Snapshot

Three weeks ago, on 5th June, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain decided to completely sever ties with Qatar. And some experts have been calling this the biggest political crisis to hit the Middle East in years.

In the aim to end the Qatar's crisis with Saudi Arabia and Gulf neighbors, last week the four Arab countries, that imposed a regional embargo on Qatar, issued list of demands which included shutting down the Al Jazeera, the Qatar's state-backed media network.

In my opinion, everybody who wants to keep Middle East frozen, in a state of crude oil autocracy, would like to close Al Jazeera and its usual comprehensive and impartial coverage of events around the world.

"Europe will not be made all at once" (Robert Shuman)

On May 7th the result of the French Presidential elections showed that we will not see the "Frexit" in the next years. America's plan is aimed at breaking the EU into smaller pieces, and it didn't work in France. And since June 2016 most people in Scotland and Northern Ireland, who  voted to remain in the EU, have been valuating the bill which has to be paid for exiting the EU. 

According to the terms of the negotiations, which were framed by the EU in  a paper published on March 29th, Britain must pay price for leaving the EU. It  would amount to about US $ 60 billion, including negotiation costs, such as the hire of facilities for the talks, meals and other subsistence allowances.

It's easy to see why Scotland and Northern Ireland are trying  to become two independent states of the EU in their own right.

Anti-EU election in France

In the first round of the 2017 French Presidential election no candidate won a majority. As a result, a run-off between the top two candidate will be held on May 7th, 2017.

Marine Le Pen's Politics is focused on immigration, as she want to protect French workers. She is less open market than Emmanuel Macron, who is more open borders.

In other words, on May 7th,  2017 French people will vote to leave or remain in the EU. And if France will leave the EU, who will be the next? As it is known, the UK will leave the UE in two years and Czech Republic has just announced to leave the Euro system.  

Cloud of uncertainty over Scotland which leaves the EU

After the UK's Prime Minister had triggered Article 50 of EU Treaty on March 29th, 2017, some Scottish policy makers explained once again how is important to leave the UK through a new independence referendum. And since June 2016 most Irish people have been thinking what happens if Scotland remains in the EU by leaving the UK. Like Scotland, the majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Not surprisingly, Northern Ireland may become an independent state of the EU in its own right, considering that its territory is larger than some existing EU members states, such as Luxembourg and Malta, It may become an independent state of the EU in its own right.

Most economist had assumed that after the vote to leave the EU the British economy will slow sharply. Of course, the UK will pay tariffs on goods and services it will export into the EU. And British business leaders are already afraid the UK will not be an attractive place to do business. 

According to figures, half of British exports are to the EU. As consequence, it is easy to know the impact of Brexit on the UK. For instance, British car makers, who are the UK's biggest exporters, have warned that the UK's departure from the European Union poses the “biggest threat in a generation”.

With regard to Scotland, three out of four its international trading markets are in the EU (France, Germany, Netherland, and USA). With food and drink exports reaching over £ 5 Billions, Scotland products are in demand in the world over.  As a matter of fact, Scotland is the third largest producer of farmed Atlantic salmon in the world, and Scotch whisky account for almost 80% of Scotland's food and beverages export market.

In this perspective, Scottish Prime Minister  recently said she is "fairly certain"  there will be a second referendum on Scottish independence, considering the cloud of uncertainty  over Scotland's future.