The most prosperous EU's regions claim the right to form a new state

With regard to Catalonia's independence declaration, which was passed by the Parliament of Catalonia on 27 October, most experts say there's no doubt that, on the long term, an independent Catalonia may be a good thing in terms of competition and regulation. Actually, Catalonia is one of the most prosperous of EU's regions.

Catalans only accounts for about 16% of the Spanish population, and 19% of Spain economy comes from Catalonia, which contributes $ 263 Billion a year to the overall Spanish economy.

Although Catalonia is bigger than many EU Member States, a very important condition for independence, to be an economic success, is that it happens peacefully. Unfortunately, Spanish government does not agree with Catalonia independence, and from a political point of view this is very different from the Scottish case, where the British Prime Minister said Scotland would hold a legal referendum. As it is known, in 2014 Scottish people voted to stay in the UK, but against Brexit in 2016. That's why Scotland should hold another referendum in order to leave the UK.

Catalans are not alone in the desire to form a new independent state and there are longstanding independence claims in other EU's regions, such as Wallonia, South Tyrol and Silesia, where people want more flexibility.  

This shows why populist movements in Europe are able to give an answer to the feel people are losing control of their own fate. As we have seen, during the last twenty-five years some countries grew enormously after they had become independent. Take for example the huge economic development of Slovakia, which split from Czech Republic in 1993.

In this perspective, Switzerland political system, in the hearth of Europe and outside the European economic area, may be a model: the Confoederatio Helvetica's decentralised entities, the Cantons, are allowed to be flexible in terms of taxation. Actually, Switzerland's federal legislation leaves a respectable amount of self-determination to the 26 Cantons, which may collect income taxes to finance their affairs, such as education system, universities, armed police forces and hospitals. And this helps to keep the country togheter.  

View of a pedestrian area in Barcelona (Catalonia)

Catalonia, Galicia and Basque country

After the higest court had declared the secession vote incostitutional, the Spanish government triggered article 155, which allows for direct control. It means, firstly, the replacement of Catalonia's senior government officials with his ministers and, secondly, the control of the region's police force, finances and public media. The Spanish Senate will decide this week.
Meanwhile the situation may deteriorate as Catalan government have declared: "use of article 155 would be see as a rejection of talks. And if talks are suspended, we will push ahead with independence". Most Catalans have been pushing for independence from Spain for decades: they have a distincs culture and language from Spain, and Spanish government marginalises them.

In addition, Galician and Basque nationalists may follow the Catalan model.

Suspension of the Catalan Parliament

The Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution says that "If a self-governing community" does not fulfill the obligations imposed on by the Constitution, or acts in a way that is seriously prejuditial to the general interest of Spain, the Government may, following Senate approval, take all measures necessary  to compel the community to meet said obbligations".

This article is never be used in the Spanish parliamentary system with its self-governing provinces. And similar provisions in other European countries have also never been invoked. It could be the natural reaction of the Spanish central government to the unilateral declaration of independence.

If the Spanish government were to invoke the article 155, it would be unclear exactly what would follow from it. We will probably see a suspension of the Catalan Parliament and Catalan Government, possibly with the arrest of members of the Catalan Government who made this proclamation, and the imposition of direct rules and administrative control of Catalonia. 

View of Barcelona, Capital and largest city of Catalonia

Catalan independence. Who will be the next in the EU?

People hang up the Catalan flag

Last Sunday, on 1st October 2017, 2.26 Million people voted  the Catalan referendum showing 90% in favour of indipendence. 1996 polling stations out of 2315 weren't closed although the Spanish government had declared the poll to be illegal. Unfortunately, police battled their way into voting stations to confiscate ballot boxes.

Catalan referendum was deemed illegal by the Spanish Supreme Court. On the one hand, section 2 of the Spanish Constitutional law says that the unity of Spanish people is indissoluble. On the other hand, Spanish Constitutional law indicates Spanish people, and Catalans think they are different from Spanish people. Catalan culture in past has experienced many challenges in efforts to maintain its distinct identity. 

In this perspective, other EU countries, which are structurated in a federal state pattern, are afraid the escalating conflict, between the Spanish government and Catalan separatists, may affect their political systems. That's why EU leaders haven't denounced the brutal police crackdown on Catalan independence referendum. They would like to think the dispute is an internal Spanish matter. It's easy to see that other people in the EU may begin to follow the Catalan independence path. 

"Alternative für deutschland" will be the third biggest party in Parliament

Just to say that after German people voted on Sunday, 24th September, the "Alternative für deutschland" party was set to enter the Bundestag for the first time. With its 80 seats, it will be the third biggest party in Parliament.

In 2013 an economics professor founded "Alternative für deutschland" party, which was soon known as eurosceptic and liberal. The new political group increased sharply since 2015 to 2016, after Ms Merkel had decided to let in more than one Million refugees.

Although it is said that the party may be considered in an extreme rightwing position, Germany's election results haven't been affecting European stock markets.

2017 Gulf countries' crisis

With regard to the ongoing crisis of Middle East countries, most international experts, diplomats and politicians are talking about mediation as a good process where disputing parties may resolve the conflict. What actually the word "mediation" means in this conflict?

As it is known, four Middle East countries have certain things against Qatar's policy, and three of them are members of the GCC political and economic alliance. Those countries say that Qatar doesn't respect the 2014 Agreement, and they would like a regime change in Qatar. In 2014 Qatar agreed to make a number of changes to its foreign policies, such as restricting Al Jazeera criticism of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other countries. Qatar also agreed to prevent Doha-based Muslim Brotherhod leaders from appearing on Al Jazeera network. Since Muslim Brotherhood rose to power in Egypt in 2012, conservative monarchies in the Middle East have been dedicating huge resources to prevent the spread of reformist ideologies. It's easy to see that those countries who want to close Al Jazeera and its comprehensive and impartial coverage of events around the world, would like to keep Middle East frozen, in a state of crude oil autocracy.

As above mentioned, this conflict may be resolved through dialogue between disputing parties and diplomatic intevention on the part of UN and perhaps other countries like Kwait. They have to sit down and talk in rational concrete realistic terms about what could be done. Qatar agrees about mediation, but Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and Bahrain insist there will be no solution unless an Agreement on their thirteen demands. Those four countries, which have been severing ties with Qatar since 5th June, mainly have demanded to cut off ties with Iran and stop financing terrorist organizations. That's why  experts, diplomats and politicians are talking about mediation. 

Qatar is not only home of the largest US military base, it also hosts Turkish soldiers. The blockading countries have demanded  Qatar to expelling Turkish troops and shut down Al Jazeera. The Shiite Arab world, and some Middle East countries, such as Turkey, say that Gulf states are violating Qatar's sovereignity. 
In this perspective, the US are in a unconfortable position, considering that, on a one hand, Qatar hosts the largest US military base. On the other hand, the US has recently approved the sale to Saudi Arabia of up to 153 tanks, hundreds of machine guns and other military gear in a deal Worth 1.15 billion Dollar. That's why we have recently seen some changes in the US position: since the last meeting with Kwait's Emir, President Trump has begun to talk about the unity of Gulf countries. And once again we have heard the word "mediation", a process where a neutral third party, such as Kwait or the US, assists others to mediate dispute in the aim to encourage a more equal balance of power in the Middle East, between the Sunny Arab world and the community of Shiites.

New Bundestag on 24th September

This year, on 24th September, Federal elections will be held in Germany in the aim to elect the new 598 members of the Bundestag. Consequently, the new German Parliament will have to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members.

According to most surveys, Mrs Merkel is likely to be re-elected, although the populist "Alternative for Germany" party looks set to enter the Bundestag for the first time.
As reported by uk.investing.com on 14th August, if she weren't to win the election, it would be the blackest of black swan". And it's easy to think how the market would be affected by the political shift.